The grid connection of PV in December exceeded the expectation, and the annual increase or exceed 60GW
Last week, the prices of 2mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass were 20 and 25-26 yuan / m2 respectively, unchanged month on month. Manufacturers' inventory days were 30.23 days, an increase of 3.20% over last week. Recently, the price of raw materials continues to decline, and the demand has improved slightly; 12 kV was greatly connected to the grid, and the annual installed capacity may reach 60GW, exceeding the previous CPIA forecast. On November 16, the United States officially restored the 201 tariff exemption for imported double-sided Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) components. At the same time, the central budget platform released the new energy subsidy budget. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls and policies are promoted, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve next year. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 41260 tons, which was flat month on month. The photovoltaic glass production plan for 22 years was large, and some promotion was general. We believe that the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. Generally speaking, we believe that the average profit of the whole industry is currently or still at the bottom range, and some small kilns are unprofitable under the current price level. We judge that the downward space of price is limited. In the future, if the demand accelerates to improve, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise, and we continue to see the logic of simultaneous rise in volume and price of Longtou company in the future.
The demand for float glass was acceptable and the profit increased slightly
Last week, the average price of float glass in China decreased by 1.85% month on month, and the demand was acceptable. Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 35.17 million weight boxes, with an increase of 1.25 million weight boxes month on month. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the production capacity decreased slightly during the week. One production line was cold repaired, with a total production capacity of about 175000 T / d. Last week, the transaction focus of cost side fuel and soda ash moved downward, the price of the original film also loosened, and the profit of float glass increased slightly. We believe that if the margin of real estate funds improves in the future, the demand side of float glass is still expected to rebound in the short term, but there is still a great possibility of an inflection point in the completed area next year.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
The demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity end has high growth. It is recommended to [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (jointly cover with Dianxin), [Xinyi solar energy]. The price and profit of float glass are still going down in the short term, but the share price of float glass leader has been greatly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of float business in equilibrium and the additional growth brought by new businesses such as photovoltaic, we believe that the current float glass leader has good medium and long-term investment value. We recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [Xinyi Glass], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ]; From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original films break through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ]. Under the logic of domestic substitution of medicinal glass, it is recommended to recommend the head enterprise of China borosilicate medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ].
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed and exceeded expectations of downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and so on; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
