Price: steel prices fell this week. This week, the price of 20mmhrb400 thread was 4760 yuan / ton, up – 2.3% from last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 4880 yuan / ton, up – 1.6% from last week. Raw material price differentiation this week. Port iron ore price differentiation this week; Coke prices rose compared with last week; Scrap prices fell compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 144 yuan / ton, – 155 yuan / ton and – 114 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of EAF steel fell month on month this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the output of rebar rebounded month on month, the warehouse of the five steel plants rebounded slightly month on month, and the social warehouse declined slightly month on month. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.04 million tons, up 190700 tons week on week, of which the output of construction steel increased by 78000 tons week on week, the output of plate increased by 112700 tons week on week, and the output of rebar increased by 41600 tons to 2691200 tons this week. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week are 2351800 tons and 339400 tons respectively, and the cycle to ring ratio is + 43300 tons and – 1700 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties decreased by 36800 tons to 8732600 tons, the total inventory of steel mills decreased by 4.209 million tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 30200 tons, of which the rebar social inventory decreased by 25500 tons and the factory inventory increased by 39400 tons. In terms of apparent consumption and steel turnover, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2.6773 million tons, down 308300 tons on a week-on-week basis, and the daily average turnover of construction steel this week is 140600 tons, down 8.1% on a week-on-week basis.
On December 29, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the “14th five year plan” for raw material industry. By 2025, the development goals include: only reduce the production capacity of key raw materials and bulk products such as crude steel and cement, maintain the production capacity utilization at a reasonable level, and reduce the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel in the iron and steel industry by 2%.
Investment suggestion: according to the “14th five year plan” for raw material industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the development goal of only reducing but not increasing crude steel production capacity by 2025 is expected to continue the long-term restriction on steel supply under the background of “double carbon”. In terms of short-term fundamentals, near the end of the year, the downstream seasonal off-season is obvious. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2.6773 million tons, with a decrease of 308300 tons on a week-on-week basis. The daily average transaction volume of construction steel this week is 140600 tons, with a decrease of 8.1% on a week-on-week basis. However, under the expected periods such as the relaxation of real estate policies and the reduction of reserve requirements, the steel market confidence is not poor. On the raw material side, the iron ore inventory is high, the coal supply is gradually restored, and the raw material price is relatively weaker than the expectation of finished products. On the whole, the expectation of limited steel supply side exists for a long time. With the relaxation of policies such as real estate at the downstream of the consumer side, steel profits may rebound. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel plate: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel plate: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Superalloy target: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.
