Industry tracking (2021.12.25-2021.12.31)
Kerui announced the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises in December 2021. The sales of top 10, top 50 and top 100 real estate enterprises in December were 342 billion yuan, 879.3 billion yuan and 1090.6 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 21.39%, – 32.91% and – 37.98% respectively. The cumulative sales from January to December were 41092 billion yuan, 10438.4 billion yuan and 12631.8 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 1%, – 2% and – 4% respectively.
Sales increased month on month in December, and most real estate enterprises decreased year-on-year. From the cumulative data, the sales growth of real estate enterprises continued to slow down. The cumulative growth rate of the first and second tier real estate enterprises decreased less than that of the third and fourth tier real estate enterprises, and the cumulative growth rate of key real estate enterprises decreased compared with that from January to November. In terms of sales price, the year-on-year growth rate of sales unit price in December was lower than that in November, and the equity ratio decreased slightly. The average sales price decreased year-on-year. The average sales price of TOP10 in December was 14934.7 yuan / flat, with a year-on-year change of – 5.15%. The average monthly sales price of six companies in TOP10 increased year-on-year. In terms of sales objectives, the average completion rate of 29 real estate enterprises that have disclosed the sales objectives is 90.92%, 17 real estate enterprises have completed more than 90%, and 3 real estate enterprises have completed the annual sales objectives.
Sales of new houses, second-hand houses and land markets improved year-on-year
The new housing market traded 7.99 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year increase of – 14.71%, an improvement of 5.02 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory was 158.18 million square meters, the second-line, third-line and below were accelerated, and the first-line speed was flat. The second-hand housing market traded 1.5 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year increase of – 25.33%, an improvement of 7.59pct compared with the previous month. The land market traded 41.86 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 53.77%; The total turnover was 202.1 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 36.97%; The national average premium rate was + 3.32%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -10.51pct.
This week, Shenwan real estate index was 0.65%, down 0.58pct from last week, ranking 21 / 31, leading the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.26pct. In terms of H shares, the wind Hong Kong real estate index this week was 0.93%, up 1.41pct from last week, ranking 3 / 11 higher, leading the Hang Seng Index by 0.19pct; The kroney leading index of real estate stocks was 0.20%, up 1.37pct from last week.
Grasp the improvement of M & A on the left and concentration on the right
Investment suggestions: Recently, the management has made intensive statements to guide the industry towards a more standardized stable and healthy development period in the medium and long term, short-term policy adjustments to alleviate pessimistic sales expectations, affordable rental housing to hedge against the decline of potential development investment, and promote the industry to return to a virtuous circle and healthy development. The future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Suggestions: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang China, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, xinchengyue service, Greentown service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
