Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal plates are recommended. This week (12.27-12.31), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.60%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.39%, the SW non-ferrous index rose 3.19%, Comex gold rose 0.98% and silver rose 1.10%. Among the prices of major industrial metals, LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by – 0.25%, 1.65%, 0.55%, 0.81%, 3.06% and – 0.42% respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in major industrial metal inventories changed by – 2.59%, – 0.36%, – 1.80%, – 0.27%, – 1.89% and 12.53% respectively.
Industrial metals: the plan issued clear development goals, European energy shortage concerns continued, and industrial metal prices continued to rise. Core view: the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw material industry was released, which proposed the goal of “significantly enhancing the ability of raw material industry to guarantee and lead the high-quality development of manufacturing industry by 2025, and becoming a highland for the R & D, production and application of important raw material products in the world by 2035”. Superimposed with the expectation of steady growth, the demand is driven, and the value of follow-up industrial metal investment continues to be optimistic. In copper, the supply side gradually recovered, the demand side remained strong, and low inventory supported prices. In terms of aluminum, concerns about energy shortage in overseas Europe continued, superimposed on China’s continued destocking, and aluminum prices continued to rise. Electrolytic aluminum went to the warehouse every week from 65000 tons to 799000 tons, and the profit rebounded to 4444 yuan / ton. Focus on: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , etc.
New energy metals: the supply decreased at the end of the year, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the price of lithium salt rose sharply. Core view: in terms of cobalt, the price of electrolytic cobalt is stable. After new year’s day, it will enter the preparation period of cobalt salt plant, and the price of cobalt salt is expected to continue to rise. In terms of lithium, in the first November of 2021, China had a total of 2422000 new energy passenger vehicles insured, with higher performance of pure electricity, and the market share increased to 82%. Shipments from upstream and traders were decreasing day by day, and tight supply and demand supported the accelerated rise of lithium salt prices. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) .
Precious metals: Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, and gold prices rose. Core view: the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to December 25 was 198000, and the employment market continued to recover. However, the initial value of PMI in Markit manufacturing industry in the United States fell to 57.8 in December, the lowest since December 2020, less than the expected 58.5, indicating that economic activity has declined, and there is still uncertainty in the supply chain and labor force. The mutant strain is spreading rapidly around the world. The average number of new confirmed cases in the United States in the last week is close to 300000, boosting the demand for gold hedging. We continue to be optimistic about the investment value of gold. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Zhaojin gold industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: the recovery of demand is less than expected, the release of supply is more than expected, and the policy uncertainty is enhanced.
