Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index increased by 0.60% and 1.00% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index increased by 0.38%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2021 (243 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by 4.80% and 2.67% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by 1.99%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by 0.38%, ranking 23rd among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, 24 of the 29 CITIC primary industries rose. The top three industries were defense and military industry, light industry manufacturing and basic chemical industry, with an increase of 4.55%, 4.20% and 3.71% respectively. Since 2021, the trade and retail industry has increased by 1.99%, ranking 21st among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2021, 22 of the 29 CITIC first-class industries have risen. The top three industries are power equipment, basic chemicals and non-ferrous metals, with an increase of 50.41%, 48.05% and 46.39% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were trade, supermarket and gold jewelry, with an increase of 4.52%, 1.92% and 0.00% respectively. Since 2021, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are trade, gold jewelry and general merchandise, with an increase of 35.74%, 14.30% and 7.73% respectively.
In the past week, 63 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) rose, 3 were flat and 27 fell. In the past week, the top three companies were Jiangsu High Hope International Group Corporation(600981) , Shenyang Cuihua Gold And Silver Jewelry Co.Ltd(002731) and Dlg Exhibitions & Events Corporation Limited(600826) , with increases of 23.86%, 16.23% and 12.63% respectively. Since 2021, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 51 companies have increased and 42 companies have decreased. Since 2021, the top three companies in terms of growth are commercial city, Shidai Wanheng and Anhui Andeli Department Store Co.Ltd(603031) , with growth rates of 235.91%, 191.61% and 126.75% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
Recently, the market attention of the consumer sector has increased, mainly because the consumer sector has a certain defensive attribute. We believe that it is unlikely that the industry data will rise sharply in the short term. It is expected that the growth rate of social consumption in December may still hover at a low level. Overall, we maintain our original view and value consumer goods with the value of investment. We believe that the two sub sectors of gold jewelry and Baijiu dealers will have more definite performance in 2022. At the same time, we believe that the supermarket sector with anti inflation attribute may have a band pulse market. However, in view of the impact of community group buying, the probability of overall sharp rise of supermarket sub sector in the short term is small, and the investment opportunities are relatively sudden. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth of consumer demand did not meet expectations. The post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
