Sector market review
This week (12 / 27-12 / 31), the transportation index rose 2.18%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.39%, outperforming the market by 1.79%, ranking 12 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the aviation sector increased the most (6.77%), and the express sector decreased the most (- 0.9%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: we believe that under the background of stricter industry supervision, all express delivery enterprises pay less attention to share, turn to multi-dimensional consideration and pay more attention to service quality. Express delivery prices are expected to stabilize, and the rise in express prices in peak seasons is expected to drive the improvement of enterprise profits. We mainly recommend leading express enterprises Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) . S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) the adjustment of business strategy pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of production capacity cycle gradually subsides, Kerry Logistics promotes the development of international business, and the certainty of performance repair is strong. Ezhou Huahu airport starts school flight, and the whole process will last about 30 days. It is expected to be put into use in the middle of 2022, and the “hub flight” mode will bring efficiency improvement, The next day, the number of cities will be increased from more than 140 to nearly 300. The service quality of aging products will be further improved and consolidated to lay the foundation for future development.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the supply of the industry is limited, and the demand side still grows every year. We are optimistic that the chemical logistics sector will pay attention to Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) , Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) . The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Aviation: as of January 1, 2022, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps had received more than 2.841 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine. The toxicity of Omicron is lighter than that of delta. The successful R & D of covid-19 will help restore normality in production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion, and the restriction policy is expected to be relaxed. During the “14th five year plan” period, the growth rate of aviation supply will decline, superimposed with the market-oriented reform of ticket prices, the airline director’s profit will be better in the first half of the year, the investment value of the aviation sector will be highlighted after adjustment, and it is recommended to allocate actively, Key recommendations Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) .
Key industry data
Centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 3344.24 points, up 1.33% month on month; The SCFI index was 5046.66 points, up 1.8% month on month; The PDCI index was 1928.00, up 2.72% month on month. Dry powder: the BDI index was 2217.00 points, down 6.8% month on month; The CDFI index was 1323.96 points, up 3.36% month on month. Oil transportation: the BDTI index was 786.00 points, down 2.1% month on month; The bcti index was 788.00 points, down 3.0% month on month.
Express: in November 2021, the revenue of express business above designated size was 107.490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%; The express business volume was 11.332 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; The unit price of express delivery was 9.49 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; The brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services is 80.70.
Aviation: Brent crude oil was USD 77.78/barrel, up 2.15% month on month; In December 2021, the ex factory price of aviation kerosene (including tax) was 5384.00 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 0.57%; The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.3757, up 0.10% month on month.
Railway: in November 2021, the railway passenger volume was 144 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 33.05%; The railway freight volume was 419 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.03%. Highway: in November 2021, the National Highway freight volume was 3.477 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.30%; The road passenger volume was 365 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 43.30%.
Risk statement
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
