Viewpoint: since the fourth quarter of 2021, the supervision has continuously released the warmth of policies and provided necessary support from the residential mortgage end and the financing end of real estate enterprises. Recently, the central bank has encouraged financial institutions to create a good financing environment for Project M & A between real estate enterprises, aiming to resolve the liquidity crisis of real estate enterprises by market-oriented means. In 2021, the sales volume and sales area of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 3.2% and 9.0% respectively year-on-year. Although the monthly sales decline narrowed, it is still at the bottom stage of the market, and it still takes time to repair the confidence of buyers. Jingzhou, Ningbo and other places have successively issued favorable policies such as house purchase subsidies and loan support to boost market sentiment. In terms of investment suggestions, the short-term industry liquidity crisis has not been eliminated, the policy game space is still in place, the medium and long-term industry bottoms out and stabilizes, and the leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of policies and stand out with comprehensive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) . The property management and business management sectors have broad industrial space, stable stock and strengthened independent development. Under the trend of increasing policy support and concentration, mainstream participants have great prospects. They are optimistic about property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength and continuous good operation, such as country garden service and poly property, as well as commercial operators occupying high-quality tracks in shopping centers and strong asset light output strength, Such as Xingsheng commerce, etc. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to waterproof faucet Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) .
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Central Bank: encourage financial institutions to create a good financing environment for Project M & A between real estate enterprises; 2) Ningbo: the loan amount of 200000 provident fund for the first house of two child and three child families was increased; 3) Kerui: the sales of the top 100 in 2021 are under pressure, and the differentiation between real estate enterprises continues.
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover continues to rise and is expected to stabilize and improve gradually. Last week (December 25-december 31), 59000 new houses and 14000 second-hand houses were sold respectively, up 3.9% and 2.9% month on month. The average daily turnover of new houses in December decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, 5.4pct narrower than that in November. At the end of the year, the policy of superimposing the mortgage end in the peak season is eased, and the transaction is expected to improve gradually. 2) The proportion of improved demand was flat month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in November 2021, the number of units above 90 square meters was flat month on month, accounting for 77.7%. 3) Inventory fell month on month, facing upward pressure. The inventory in 16 cities was 103.86 million square meters, down 0.3% month on month. Under the pressure of actively obtaining evidence, pushing the plate and removing chemicals, the inventory is facing upward pressure. 4) The land transaction and premium rate rebounded, and the proportion of the first and second tier increased. The previous week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 16.788 million square meters, and the transaction construction area was 41.864 million square meters, up 36.8% and 27.1% month on month; The transaction premium rate was 3.3%, up 1.9pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 3.6%, 52.2% and 44.1% respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.6pct, an increase of 21.9pct and a decrease of 24.5pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: this week, the domestic bonds issued by real estate enterprises were 2.24 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 2.9 billion yuan, and there was no issuance of overseas foreign debt; The range of domestic and foreign issuance interest rates is 3.46% – 7.5%, and the comparable issuance interest rate is flat compared with the previous time. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 4.8 billion yuan this week, a month on month decrease of 1.16 billion yuan. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector rose 0.65% last week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (+ 0.39%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.33 times, and the valuation is in the 16% quantile in recent five years. Last week, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks had a net inflow of funds to the north, and the top three real estate enterprises were Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; The top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow to the south are poly property, China Resources Land and Xincheng development.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Large scale impairment risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk
