abstract
Roving decreased slightly on a week-on-month basis, and continued to be optimistic about the business continuity of the glass fiber industry. The price of glass fiber roving decreased slightly on a week-on-week basis this week, mainly due to the slight reduction in the quotation of some small factories, gradually entering the off-season and slightly light trading; Inventory continues to be at the bottom of history. The subsequent demand increment focuses on the improvement of export, wind power and new energy vehicle penetration. It is expected to be elastic in 22 years and grow in the long term. There is no change in supply planning this week, and there is no change in production line status this week. In the past 22 years, the new supply was relatively limited, and attention should be paid to the continuous guidance of the association’s orderly expansion of new production capacity. We are optimistic about the continuity of high prosperity and weakening of periodic fluctuations in the glass fiber industry, limited supply increment and demand, focusing on the rhythm of overseas transportation and repair and the improvement of wind power demand; At the same time, pay close attention to: 1) the impact of changes in medium and long-term capacity planning on market expectations under the state of high profitability, and 2) the disturbance of tightening energy consumption indicators on the landing of new capacity.
The price of electronic yarn / electronic cloth stabilized after adjustment this month, with a further rapid downward probability or small. The price of electronic yarn and electronic cloth was stable on a weekly basis this week. The price decreased significantly this month or was affected by the change of procurement rhythm due to downstream factors such as controlling inventory near the end of the year. The demand was supported, and the probability of further significant decline was small. China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) the production capacity of electronic yarn and electronic thick cloth continued to expand, and the share increased steadily; Grace Fabric Technology Co.Ltd(603256) high end electronic cloth technology has advantages (the first echelon in the world), gradually realize self supply of high-end electronic yarn, and pay attention to the production rhythm and operation effect of Huangshi gauze project.
The industry cycle attribute may be gradually weakened, focusing on China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . The valuation of the main listed companies in the glass fiber sector is in the historical bottom range (the PE of the main listed traditional glass fiber enterprises in 21 years is about 12x), and the medium and long-term configuration cost performance is good. The industry cycle attribute is judged as the core difference of the market, the new supply is limited, the difficulty of obtaining energy consumption indicators is improved, and the demand is growing. The third quarterly report or performance forecast of major enterprises proves that the industry boom continues to rise, and we judge it to be continuous. We suggest to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation reshaping under the weakening of industry cycle, continue to recommend China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) with a stable global leading position, firmly promoting cost reduction / scale expansion / high-end product structure, medium and long-term growth, strong strength of glass fiber business, improvement of diaphragm benefits / gradual improvement of voice, medium and long-term growth of blades, obvious technical advantages, gradual production of Huangshi gauze project 21 years or Grace Fabric Technology Co.Ltd(603256) facing the turning point of growth (jointly covered with the E-Team). In addition, Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (jointly covered with the chemical team) and Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) which are worth looking forward to growth are also recommended to focus on.
Risk tip: the new production capacity of glass fiber exceeds the expectation, the new production capacity planning exceeds the expectation, and the downstream demand is lower than the expectation (wind power, automobile, electronics, etc.).
