Key investment points
Market review of transportation service sector this week
1) Shenwan level industries (31): this week (December 27 – December 31), the cumulative growth of social services and transportation industries were + 4.88% and + 1.64% respectively, ranking first and 17th respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by + 0.39%.
2) Shenwan secondary industries (134): this week (December 27 – December 31), the cumulative growth of airports, tourism and scenic spots, hotel catering and tourism retail was + 5.2%, + 3.8%, + 3.7% and + 0.0% respectively, ranking 15th, 29th, 30th and 102nd respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: from December 25 to December 31, 1) China: a total of 1151 local confirmed cases (408 last week) were reported, mainly in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province; As of 9:00 on December 31, there were 67 medium and high-risk areas in China, including 2 high-risk areas and 65 medium risk areas. 2）
Globally, there were about 8.6 million newly confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia, with a chain ratio of + 58.5%; The number of new deaths was 42572, a month on month increase of – 11.5%. 3) United States: About 2.62 million cases were newly diagnosed, an increase of 82% month on month; There were 9234 new deaths, down 16% month on month. 4) UK: About 720000 new cases were diagnosed, an increase of 3% month on month; There were 772 new deaths, down 5% month on month.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: as of December 31, China has reported nearly 2.84 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 12.78 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated from December 25 to December 31, an increase of 6.4% month on month. 2) Global: as of December 31, the world had received nearly 9.2 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine, and 58.2% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: flight execution picked up slightly this week
1) Industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from December 27 to December 31, the daily average number of flights executed by China and international routes was about 9846, an increase of 11.7% over last week.
2) Secretary for aviation: from December 27 to December 31, according to the data of flight standards, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Chunqiu, Jixiang and Huaxia were 864, 1590, 1385, 426, 291 and 142 respectively, with an average of 14.0%, 11.5%, 11.1%, 4.2%, 23.9% and 14.8% respectively.
3) Airport: from December 27 to December 31, according to the data of flight standards, the daily average take-off and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 336, 321, 321, 405 and 380 respectively, 36.7%, 8.2%, 7.9%, 29.4% and 3.6% respectively compared with last week. The significant increase of Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) flights is mainly due to the transition to low risk in Shanghai.
Tax exemption: in 2021, the tax-free sales of Hainan outlying islands reached 60.17 billion yuan, reaching the target
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from December 25 to December 31, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 361 and 408 respectively, an increase of 6% and 8% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou Airport (expected) was 52384, an increase of 7.9% month on month.
2) Tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail and outlying island tax-free channels (China free outlying island tax-free, sea travel investment, sea development control and China export service) was basically the same month on month.
3) According to the Hainan Department of Commerce, in 2021, the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan reached 60.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84%. Among them, the tax-free sales volume was 50.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83%; The number of duty-free shoppers was 9.6766 million, a year-on-year increase of 73%; The number of duty-free purchases was 53.492 million, a year-on-year increase of 71%.
The taxable sales of duty-free stores (supplementary purchase on outlying islands and offline taxable sales) were about 9.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86%.
Hotel Information Review
1) Zheng Nanyan set up Dehou group and installed it into Kaiyuan Hotel and Starwood. The scale has exceeded 800.
2) Qunar platform shows that as of December 30, the hotel reservation from the first day to the sixth day of the lunar new year in 2022 has exceeded the reservation in the same period at the end of 2019. The number of train tickets issued in the last week of 2021 is about 20% higher than that of last week.
Investment advice
1) Recommendation Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, which is still expected to usher in catalysis in the near future, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) Three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be present, and the company will show greater profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) Recommendation Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) : China’s transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, and its performance is the first to recover. Before the opening of the door, its profit performance is more stable and has high long-term growth. 4) It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : the scale advantage is obvious, the management is significantly improved, the overseas recovery is accelerated, and it is expected to usher in a period of high-speed growth. 5) Recommendation Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) under the three-year goal of ten thousand stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%. 6) Recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space. The tax-free rent negotiation of the capital airport landed last year, and the opening of Meilan Airport Phase II duty-free store is expected to catalyze the company’s performance.
Risk statement
The epidemic recovery was less than expected, the industry demand was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
