Summary of this issue:
The more high-end brands of Baijiu, the more luxury attributes, such as spiritual connotation, monetary equivalent, and so on, which are different from general consumer goods. Even, when Maotai enters the super high price band (more than 2000 yuan), it has the asset attribute (not the definition of assets that can bring cash flow, but similar to gold). Its price is not completely determined by supply and demand, but by expectation. Extending downward from the high price, the FMCG attribute of products is becoming stronger, and the difference in development logic is gradually widening with the high price. For example, the impact of price on demand is different. The rise of Maotai price even positively promotes demand, while general FMCG is more negatively affected. But the overall price belt of Baijiu industry is developing upward in competition, which is different from the general fast moving products. When the price war hits the industry upward, the interests of the whole industry are more consistent, the management efficiency is higher, and the energy dissipation is less.
Products are addictive, social catalyst, value added, so that Baijiu is different from general products. The huge value, the thorough excavation of China’s national conditions, and the high frequency and meticulous service have made Baijiu, a company that has a wide range of distance from the category and other kinds of liquor, has little change, can reproduce well, and repeat the story well. Our Chinese company has an advantage. Besides the functional value of products (physical addiction + mental social interaction), Baijiu companies and channels have more advantages and excavations in the emotional value and asset value of products. The strength of Baijiu is based on the strong binding demand side. The consensus on value volume has expanded the application scenario of Baijiu. Taking gift use as an example, the value consensus of Mau five is the highest in the whole country, and it can also keep up with the increase of other assets, and the product life cycle is long enough to satisfy consumers’ human nature of seeking consensus. The value consensus of other brands is also reflected in the region and is more suitable for the rich application scenarios in the region, which is also the embodiment of the attributes of sub high-end and middle-end FMCG. For example, the product layout and attack and defense conversion in real estate wine have a short product life cycle and need to meet the human nature of consumers seeking change.
The Baijiu industry has entered the stage of shrinkage, and the choice of liquor enterprises, channels and consumers has been concentrating. Liquor companies and channels are more cautious in making decisions based on long-term decisions, prices represent future and inventory means risks. Baijiu consumption differentiation is more and more difficult to dig. The channels accept more and more new brands of agents, and wineries have become increasingly sophisticated in channel services. Conversely, regardless of the flavor, year and culture, once the channel profits are straightened out and the channel value level is deeply recognized, the strength of momentum will also be great. These are the results of the evolution of the industry pattern, which is different from the stage when the volume and price of the industry rose together ten years ago.
The concentration of the head is accompanied by the expansion of secondary high-end capacity, which is boosted by the “stirring” of sauce and wine. Compared to the price of the mainstream Baijiu brand, ten years ago, except for the Moutai department, the price of the mainstream products of other brands increased slightly. However, the capacity expansion of the secondary high-end continues, and the volume and price rise together. Among them, potential single products such as drunkard series and taste willing are still at the lower edge of the secondary high-end price band (the rated price is 300-800 yuan). Under the FMCG attribute, the price still has an advantage. Ten years ago, Maotai led to pull down the secondary high-end price, while at present, the sauce and wine category has collectively consolidated the secondary high-end price. Although there is a crowding out effect locally, it has contributed to other sub high-end flavors in the price band at the national level.
To sum up, we believe that the high-end leading is steady and positive, the expansion of secondary high-end brands will be sustained and powerful, and the brands with historical accumulation are still in the window period of upward industry potential. Real estate liquor will also benefit from the expansion of secondary high-end capacity and have periodic development opportunities in product structure layout. The development of sauce wine will drive the development of the industry to a certain extent after the recovery.
Risk factors: repeated epidemic risk; Food safety risks.
