matter:
Kerry released the sales data of top 100 real estate enterprises in 2021.
Ping An View:
The sales of the top 100 fell year-on-year, and will still be under pressure in 2022. Affected by demand overdraft and credit events of real estate enterprises, the transaction of real estate market in the second half of the year turned downward sharply, and the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises fell year-on-year in 2021. The annual sales volume was 12.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, and the sales area was 850 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. Among them, the decline in December eased, with monthly sales of 1.1 trillion yuan and sales area of 71.31 million square meters, down 36% and 31.3% respectively year-on-year, 3.3 and 15.7 percentage points lower than that in November. Looking forward to 2022, it will still take time for policy transmission and the recovery of buyers’ confidence. The supply side will be affected by the weakening of land acquisition and construction in the early stage, and the annual sales are expected to continue to bear pressure, with the growth rate in a single month low before and high after.
The sales threshold varies, and the fierce competition in the industry continues. In 2021, the sales threshold of top 10 real estate enterprises reached 290.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. The sales threshold of top 20 real estate enterprises reached 171.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, steadily increasing. In contrast, the sales thresholds of top30, Top50 and Top100 real estate enterprises decreased by 0.8%, 1.2% and 4.2% year-on-year, showing differentiation from the above head echelons. As the real estate market enters the adjustment period, the industry pattern will usher in a new round of reshuffle. High quality real estate enterprises are expected to further seize the share and promote the continuous improvement of market share by virtue of their advantages in brand, financing and operation.
The completion of the goal is lower than that in previous years, and the performance of real estate enterprises is differentiated. The overall sales target completion rate of 23 mainstream real estate enterprises is 91%. Among the 23 houses, only Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Yuexiu real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) and China Resources Land exceeded the targets at the beginning of the year, with completion rates of 112.8%, 105.3%, 102.3% and 100.3% respectively. The proportion of over fulfilled real estate enterprises was lower than that in previous years. From the perspective of specific real estate enterprises, country garden led real estate enterprises with full caliber sales of 758.8 billion yuan in 2021. 17 of the 28 real estate enterprises under key monitoring continued positive growth. The annual sales growth of Greentown China, Baolong real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) and Yuexiu real estate exceeded 20%, 24.2%, 24.1%, 24% and 23.4% respectively; The annual sales growth of Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Longguang group and China Resources Land exceeded 10%, 18.1%, 17.7%, 16.2% and 10.8% respectively.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises fell year-on-year, and the decline was narrowed in December due to the influence of policy support. Looking forward to 2022, it will still take time for policy transmission and the recovery of home buyers’ confidence, and the annual sales are expected to remain under pressure. The short-term industry liquidity crisis has not been eliminated, the policy game space is still in place, the medium and long-term industry bottoms out and stabilizes, and the leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of policies and stand out with comprehensive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , etc. The property management and business management sectors have broad industrial space, stable stock and strengthened independent development. Under the trend of increasing policy support and concentration, mainstream participants have great prospects. They are optimistic about the property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength and continuous good operation, such as country garden service, poly property, Jinke service, xinchengyue service, etc., as well as occupying the high-quality track of the shopping center Commercial operators with strong asset light output strength, such as Xingsheng commerce, etc. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to waterproof faucet Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) .
Risk tips: 1) if the new land storage scale of real estate enterprises is insufficient, it will have a negative impact on the supply, sales and investment of goods; 2) Large scale impairment risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
