Key investment points:
The photovoltaic plate rebounded slightly. In this period, the photovoltaic industry rose 2.97%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The average daily turnover of the sector was 46.114 billion yuan, with a small volume month on month. Individual stocks in the sector rose more or fell less, and the profit-making effect has improved. Shouhang High-Tech Energy Co.Ltd(002665) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Lucky Film Company Limited(600135) , Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) led the increase.
The national energy work conference released seven key tasks for energy work in 2022. The meeting clearly proposed to accelerate the implementation of renewable energy substitution action, promote the development and consumption of wind power photovoltaic nearby in the eastern, central and southern regions, actively promote the cluster development of offshore wind power and the development of wind power photovoltaic bases in the “Three North” regions, pay close attention to the construction of desert, Gobi and desert wind power photovoltaic bases, and start the implementation of “wind control action in thousands of villages and villages” and “Sunshine Action for thousands of families”. The national level has unswerving confidence in the development of renewable energy and the transformation of energy structure. The construction of large wind and scenery base, the promotion of distributed photovoltaic in the whole county and the improvement of relevant supporting facilities are expected to actively promote the photovoltaic installation in 2022.
During the year, the installed capacity was lower than expected, and the silicon material supply increased steadily. In November 2021, China’s PV installed capacity increased by 5.70gw, a year-on-year increase of 41.79%. From January to November, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic in China was 34.83gw, a year-on-year increase of 34.48%. It is difficult to complete the 55-65gw expected by the association in the whole year. In December, China’s polysilicon output was about 48800 tons, an increase of 11.2% month on month. The annual output was about 490000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%.
The decline of silicon material price narrowed, and the middle and lower reaches prices were basically stable. This week, China’s silicon material price fell to about 230000 yuan / ton, down 2.5% month on month. Prices in the middle and lower reaches were basically stable, and component prices decreased slightly. The decline in silicon price narrowed, mainly due to the phased demand growth in silicon wafer links, which stabilized the silicon price to a certain extent. After the early price reduction, the component inventory decreased and the operating rate of components and battery chips increased.
Maintain the investment rating of “stronger than the market” in the industry. The price reduction of photovoltaic industry chain has gradually played a role in driving downstream demand, and the production of modules and batteries has improved month on month. Considering the new supply of silicon head enterprises and the expansion of production in all links of the industrial chain, it is expected that the price of photovoltaic industrial chain still has room for decline. The short-term sector valuation is at a historically high position, and the deposit may continue to fall. In the medium term, it is suggested to focus on alleviating the shortage of raw material supply and improving the layout of beneficiary areas based on the improvement of photovoltaic installation demand.
Risk warning: the global installed demand is less than expected; The implementation of the policy is less than expected; Performance growth is less than expected risk.
