In the first year of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic harvest has a good market performance. 2021 is the first year after the carbon neutralization target is proposed. China’s policies are intensively introduced, and the top-level design is combined with ministerial measures to build a carbon neutralization policy framework. International consensus has gathered. After the 26th climate conference, carbon neutralization is expected to strengthen. In 2021, the PV index experienced price fluctuations in the industrial chain and policy driven. The performance of the re opening PV index is highly sensitive to the marginal changes in the supply constraints of the industrial chain and the policy expectations of the magnitude of downstream demand. It has increased by 39.97% since the beginning of the year. Compared with the excess returns of the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index, it has reached 46 PCTs and 36 PCTs respectively β。 Photovoltaic stocks reflect themselves from structural changes, dilemma reversal and the second growth curve α。 In 2021, the valuation of the photovoltaic sector rose, and the premium rate relative to the mainstream market index reached an all-time high.
Silicon material supply expansion, industry volume growth, looking for differentiated competition opportunities. Looking forward to 2022, with the landing of silicon production capacity, the main supply bottleneck of photovoltaic will be relaxed, and the price of the industrial chain is expected to fall, igniting large-scale demand at home and abroad. It is expected that in 2022, China will promote the whole county and launch large base projects, with full indicators, domestic demand reaching more than 70gw, overseas market continuing high growth, external demand reaching 140gw, and global demand reaching 210gw, with an increase of more than 30%. In terms of silicon material, the output is expected to reach 820000 tons in 2022, supporting 244gw of installed capacity. It is expected that the price will fall back to 150000-200000 yuan / ton after the improvement of supply-demand relationship, and still maintain considerable profits. Silicon wafers and battery chips are facing a significant expansion of production capacity. The nominal production capacity of silicon wafers is expected to reach 500gw (+ 46%) and the production capacity of battery chips is expected to reach 507gw (+ 20%). New competitive advantages are established from the n-type technical route, such as the improvement of thermal field in rod pulling process, fine linear cutting in processing links and non-destructive laser cutting of battery chips. It is estimated that the supply-demand ratio of nominal capacity in photovoltaic glass is more than 1.5. Low iron quartz sand may become a constraint for production expansion, and the industry pattern is concentrated to the leader. The energy storage and inverter links benefit from the increased penetration of new energy and the increased fluctuation of power grid source load, and the demand will increase in large quantities in the future.
Investment advice Pay attention to the following links: after the price reduction and increase of silicon material link, the deterministic profit growth and the competitive advantage brought by the difference in the landing progress of n-type silicon material; The n-type transformation of silicon and battery is an opportunity for auxiliary material and equipment enterprises; When the photovoltaic glass production capacity falls to the ground, the cost advantage formed by the self supply of quartz sand and the increase in the share of leading enterprises in the price game; After the decline of raw material costs, the profits of component enterprises are repaired.
Risk tip: carbon neutralization policy is not as expected, raw material prices fluctuate sharply, and trade disputes
