Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ); Titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), carbon fiber ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ), spandex and polyurethane ( Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ), food additives ( Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ), zeolite / OLED ( Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) ), pesticides ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) ), compound fertilizer ( Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ), etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and trade risk on oil price. Recommend excellent private refining enterprises ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ) to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter large-scale refining and layout C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking; Follow Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products fell, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas rose, LNG gas remained flat and coal price fell; The prices of aromatics and chemical fiber products rose.
This week, China’s chemical price index ccpi-0.7%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 2.2%, imported LPG + 5.7%, domestic LNG gas is flat, and bituminous coal is – 13.1%.
On the raw material side, the prices of some aromatic products increased, while the prices of some C1 and C3 products decreased; On the product side, the prices of some chemical fiber products rose, while the prices of some chlor alkali, pesticide, rubber, plastics, fluorochemical and amino acid products fell.
Oil prices rose this week, negotiations on Iran’s nuclear issue progressed slowly, and European natural gas supply remained tight.
This week, the settlement price of distribution oil rose from 76.1 to 77.8 US dollars / barrel (up 2.2%), and the settlement price of American oil rose from 73.8 to 75.2 US dollars / barrel (up 1.9%); U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 420 million barrels (Mom – 0.8%), and the number of U.S. crude oil wells was 480 (flat mom).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the market is generally concerned about the new round of OPEC + meeting to be held on January 4, but the probability of output strategy adjustment is small, or the rhythm of small output increase of 400000 barrels / day will be maintained. The negotiation on Iran’s nuclear issue has entered the eighth round, but progress is still slow. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the recent local epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has deteriorated, but the United States, Britain and other countries have not taken new control measures, and the problem of tight natural gas supply in Europe has not been solved. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the market is still concerned about the Fed’s new measures to shrink QE, and the US dollar has maintained a narrow fluctuation for the time being, with limited impact on oil prices. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, the negotiation on the Iranian nuclear issue is still in multi-party game, the potential supply increase expectation is difficult to release temporarily, and there is also some support for oil prices.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: this week (12.23-12.30) natural gas in Europe and the United States rose or fell. NBP was – 29.78%, TTF was – 28.91%, and North American futures rose, HH was + 2.89%, AECO was + 4.92%. Spot was contrary to futures, HH was – 0.05%, AECO was + 3.53%, and ttf was + 16.46%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 11756 yuan / ton, up + 3.28%, The average sales price of the terminal is 5062 yuan / ton, and the price difference is + 113 yuan / ton (+ 2.28%).
Inventory tracking: according to EIA data, as of December 24, the US natural gas inventory was 322.6 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 136 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 4.05%, year-on-year ratio of – 7.20%), still lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of December 24, the European natural gas inventory was 2166.3 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 128.8 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 5.62%, year-on-year ratio of – 26.25%).
China’s price: the price of China’s main LNG producing areas basically stabilized this week. As of December 30, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 4826 yuan / ton, unchanged compared with last week; Consumer prices stabilized. As of December 30, the average price of major LNG consumers was about 5046 yuan / ton, up + 1.61% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 4945 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with last week. View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
Important products with the highest price increase this week are NPG + 12%, o-nitrochlorobenzene + 9%, bisphenol A + 8%, dimethylcyclosiloxane (DMC) + 5%, Phenol + 5%, tetrahydrofuran THF + 5%, polymerized MDI + 4%, pyrimethanil + 4%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are maleic anhydride – 24%, ammonium sulfate – 17%, vinyl acetate – 16%, propylene oxide – 15%, pva-14%, soft foam Polyether – 11%, r134a-10%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to the photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon – 5%, trichlorosilane flat, soda ash (light – 8%, heavy – 7%), vinyl acetate – 16%, EVA (photovoltaic grade) – 4%, etc. Chemicals related to the lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) was the same, phosphoric acid – 4%, lithium carbonate (industrial grade + 7%, battery grade + 3%), iron phosphate was the same, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) was the same, and lithium hexafluorophosphate was the same.
The downstream demand for o-phenylenediamine is strong, which supports the rise in the price of o-nitrochlorobenzene.
O-nitrochlorobenzene rose 8.9% to 11000 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream demand for o-phenylenediamine is strong, the market is actively purchasing, the demand of pharmaceutical and dye industries is good, and the demand side support is strong; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the recent operation of o-nitrochlorobenzene manufacturers is stable and the market supply is sufficient.
The high cost supported the market, and the shortage of goods on the site pushed up the price of phenol.
Phenol (East China) rose 5.2% to 10050 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the raw material pure benzene (East China) rose 5.6% to 7320 yuan / ton this week to support the cost; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream terminal is completely rigid this week; At the supply end, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, the phenol ketone units are in normal operation, some units operate at low load, the supply of goods in the site is tight, and the supplier’s shipment is pressureless.
Cost support, tight spot circulation and rising price of bisphenol A.
Bisphenol A (East China) rose 7.6% to 17050 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the raw material phenol (East China) rose 5.2% to 10050 yuan / ton this week, forming a strong cost side support; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current downstream epoxy resin and PC range fluctuate, and the raw material bisphenol A is just needed to be purchased; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the 150000 T / a bisphenol a unit of Beijing Sinopec Yanshan Petrochemical polycarbonate Co., Ltd. was temporarily shut down for maintenance due to failure on December 28. On December 2, other production enterprises basically maintained normal production, mostly for their own use or long supply. On the whole, the tight spot circulation formed a favorable situation.
The downstream is actively preparing goods before the festival, the enterprise inventory is low, the supply of goods is in short supply, and the double benefits of supply and demand support the price of silicone DMC. Methylcyclosiloxane (DMC) (East China) rose 5.3% to 25800 yuan / ton on Tuesday. On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the downstream factories actively prepared goods before the festival, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current inventory of silicone enterprises is low. In addition, some units are shut down for maintenance, and the supply of goods in the yard is relatively short, so the supply side support is provided.
The downstream just needs to be maintained, some units are overhauled, and the price of polymerized MDI rises.
This week, aggregate MDI (East China) rose 4.1% to 20300 yuan / ton. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, raw aniline (East China) rose 1.0% to 10000 yuan / ton this week to support the cost; On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the demand of large refrigerator and freezer enterprises in the downstream follows up smoothly. As the Spring Festival approaches, some projects in southern China are in the end of the year, the demand for hard bubbles decreases, and the follow-up of other downstream demand is slow; On the supply side, according to the MDI of Baichuan Yingfu, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Ningbo) Co., Ltd., the 400000 T / a unit in phase I will be shut down for maintenance on November 27, which is expected to last 45 days, and the 800000 T / a unit in phase II will be shut down for maintenance on December 11, which is expected to last 45 days. The 400000 T / a unit in Chongqing BASF will be stored for maintenance on January 4, which is expected to last 20 days, forming a good supply side, Other devices basically operate normally.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation, lower downstream demand than expected, etc.
