Since the beginning of 2021, the sector has continued to outperform the market: this week, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index rose by 3.18%, the gem index rose by 0.78%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.39%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.60%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector led the market by 2.58 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2021, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index has increased by 37.19%, the gem index has increased by 12.02%, the CSI 300 index has decreased by – 5.20%, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 4.80%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector is 32.39 percentage points ahead of the market.
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According to the announcement of satellite chemistry on December 28, the company signed the investment project cooperation agreement with the Management Committee of Xuwei new area, the National East, middle and West Regional Cooperation Demonstration Area, and plans to invest in the new green chemical new material industrial park project in Xuwei new area, with a total investment of about 15 billion yuan (including tax), including about 13 billion yuan (including tax) in fixed assets, The construction content mainly includes 200000 t / a ethanolamine (EOA), 800000 T / a polystyrene (PS) and 100000 t / A α- Olefin and supporting Poe, 750000 T / a carbonate series production units are divided into three phases.
According to the December 29th official account of Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) new energy, the company’s carbon ester marketing team has actively developed the international market, butting customers in India, Vietnam, Japan and other markets. The first single carbon ester export barrel business has been successfully shipped.
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The downstream of the lightweight leader continues to extend and accelerate the domestic substitution of new materials. The project is divided into three phases. The first phase includes 2 * 150000 T / a carbonate and electrolyte additive unit, 2 * 100000 t / a ethanolamine unit, 2 * 200000 t / a PS unit and supporting public and auxiliary works; Phase II project includes 100000 t / A α- Olefin and Poe units, 150000 T / a carbonate series units; Phase III project includes 400000 T / a PS unit, 300000 t / a carbonate series unit, etc. The project is planned to start construction before March 30, 2022, and the phase III project will be completed and put into operation in December 2027. PS uses styrene, the product of ethane phase II project, as raw material, which is mainly used in electronics, packaging, consumer goods, etc; Ethanolamine uses the existing ethylene oxide as raw material and is used in washing products, medicine, pesticides and other fields. According to the statistics of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and the Chemical Industry Federation, the dependence of PS and ethanolamine on foreign countries in 2020 is respectively; 31.13%、31.75%。 The project makes full use of existing and future planned products, continues deep processing downstream, improves added value and speeds up domestic substitution of new materials.
Hualu carbon ester sales channels continue to expand, and the electrolyte solvent layout will be overweight in the long term. According to Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) new energy official account, the company’s 300 thousand ton carbon ester two methyl ester plant was successfully launched in October 3rd. In October 8th, the electronic grade carbon ester two methyl ester product was officially put into the market. After more than one month’s marketing and docking, the cooperative customers of Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) electrolyte continued to increase. As of November 12th, 24 cooperative enterprises including Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) were developed. On November 19, the daily delivery volume of carbon ester products exceeded 1650 tons. On December 29, the company’s first single carbon ester export barrel business was shipped smoothly. In addition, according to Dezhou development and Reform Commission, the company plans a high-end solvent project to build a 600000 T / a dimethyl carbonate unit with dimethyl oxalate as raw material and advanced catalytic decarbonization technology; With dimethyl carbonate and ethanol as raw materials, a 300000 t / a methyl ethyl carbonate unit is built by using the transesterification reaction technology of dimethyl carbonate and ethanol, with a by-product of 50000 T / a diethyl carbonate. After the unit is completed and put into operation, the annual output of dimethyl carbonate is 300000 tons, methyl ethyl carbonate is 300000 tons, and the annual by-product of diethyl carbonate is 50000 tons. At that time, the DMC capacity of the company will be expanded to 600000 tons, the solvent varieties will also be expanded to methyl ethyl carbonate and diethyl carbonate, and the solvent product matrix will be further improved. Relying on the advantages of engineering capability, the company continues to upgrade the industrial chain, or will benefit from the rapid development of new energy vehicles and effectively improve its profitability.
Product prices are mixed: the products with the highest price increases include C4 feed gas (6.19%), isobutyraldehyde (5.85%), THF (East China) (4.94%), polymerized MDI (4.65%) and p-xylene (4.62%). The products with the highest price decline include maleic anhydride (- 23.94%), thermal coal (- 14.89%), vinyl acetate (- 14.89%), propylene oxide (- 14.29%) and BOPET (- 13.64%).
The crude oil center has risen, so it is recommended to pay attention to China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) . The traditional bulk is still looking for the bottom, and the leading value crosses the cycle. Affected by the economic cycle and the global spread of the epidemic, traditional bulk products in the chemical industry are in a downward trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness: in the downward period of the cycle, the leading enterprises expand their advantages, and the valuation is obviously low, or cross the cycle, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . With the improvement of health awareness, sugar substitutes have become the general trend of the times. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading food additives Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) in the business cycle.
New materials: actively embrace industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction. Scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to focus on the subject of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is recommended to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Risk warning events: macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
