Sub industry core weekly view
New energy: the depolarization of industrial chain inventory has been completed, the output of middle and lower reaches has rebounded, China’s grid connection data in December may exceed expectations to support the demand of 2022h1, and the expected shipment volume has increased quarter by quarter, driving the sentiment of photovoltaic sector to warm up, continuing to focus on the layout of supply bottlenecks, benefiting from large quantities, and paying attention to the improvement of pattern and technical iteration; The contract price adjustment formula was introduced for the first time in the centralized purchase of large components of PetroChina, which is convenient for the pricing decision of the industrial chain and weakens the futures attribute of component business.
Electric vehicles: in December, the sales volume of new forces of electric vehicles continued to rise, and the subsidy policy in 2022 met the expectation. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger vehicles in 2022 will be more than 5.5 million; Traditional automobile enterprises will speed up intellectualization, and the penetration rate will accelerate in 2022; Continue to be optimistic about the leading electric / intelligent vehicle, incremental parts, battery leaders with advantages in raw material guarantee, and upstream lithium resources with tight supply and resource advantages.
Hydrogen energy and fuel cell: Jiading released the action plan for hydrogen energy and fuel cell, and FCV plans to exceed 3500 units; The application scenario of natural gas hydrogen blending is opened, and the downstream application of hydrogen production enterprises is expanded; The production and sales data in December may usher in an outbreak. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the performance of the sector.
Power equipment and industrial control: the PMI in December 2021 was 50.3 and that in November 2021 was 50.1, which increased slightly month on month, and has been above the boom and bust line for two consecutive months. Among them, the PMI of new orders increased by 0.3pct month on month, the PMI of production and new export orders decreased by 0.6/0.4pct month on month, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises increased by 1.1/0.1pct month on month, and the PMI of small enterprises decreased by 2pct month on month. In December, downstream demand rebounded, exports remained weak, business prosperity differentiation intensified, and the operation of small enterprises needs to be improved.
Important industry events this week
New energy: SASAC issued the guidance on promoting the high-quality development of central enterprises and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization; In December, the installed capacity of grid connected PV in China may exceed 25gw, and it is expected to be 60GW + in the whole year; PetroChina’s bid opening for centralized purchase of 4.5gw components introduced the agreement price adjustment formula for the first time; CLP issued the bidding announcement of 7.5GW components in 2022;
Electric vehicles: in 2022, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30%, and the maximum subsidy scale of 2 million units will be released; The price of Model3 / y rear drive version rises again; Geely develops a driverless exclusive vehicle for waymo; Invest Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 24 billion in the construction of phase 7-10 project of power battery manufacturing base in Yibin, Sichuan; Zhongchuangxin aviation (formerly AVIC lithium battery) invested 1.8 billion to build a lithium battery cathode material project with an annual output of 100000 tons;
Hydrogen energy: the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the 12th batch of recommended FCV recommended catalogue, which is the first supporting equipment of Czech hydrogen technology and hydrogen blue era; The first unit of China’s first megawatt hydrogen power station is connected to the grid in Lu’an, Anhui Province; Aerospace hydrogen energy has won 200 million orders, and 100 hydrogen vehicles will be put into demonstration operation in 2022.
Power equipment and industrial control: in December 2021, the PMI was 50.3, slightly increased month on month, and above the boom and bust line for two consecutive months.
Risk tips:
The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; The global epidemic worsened more than expected.
