Market review last week:
Last week (December 27-december 31), the food and beverage sector (Shenwan) fell 4.65%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.60%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.00%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.39%. The food and beverage sector lost the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.25 percentage points last week, ranking 31st among the weekly increases and decreases of Shenwan's 31 primary sub industries. Most of the sub sectors fell, and the Baijiu plate fell 5.93%.
The core point: Baijiu enterprise's performance is high, and the momentum of 2022 is still strong.
Baijiu plate: the price of high-end liquor will rise again, which will lead to sustained release of plate performance. Last week, Maotai released the super high-end product Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasure), and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) also raised the price of 100 year Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) cellar age wine for 60 years. The price increase of high-end liquor will play a good role in promoting the prosperity of the industry. The price increase of high-end famous liquor can enhance the price ceiling of Baijiu and promote the continuous release of the plate performance. In addition, the price increase of high-end famous liquor shows that the leading liquor enterprises have strong confidence in the performance of 22 years. The price increase is conducive to improving the confidence of dealers and consumers, enhancing the smoothness of sales channels and the robustness of the overall performance of the sector.
The growth of Baijiu plate in 2021 remained strong, and the kinetic energy in 2022 remained unchanged. From the perspective of high-end Baijiu, because of the obvious social attributes and the target customers group, the high-end Baijiu enterprises have strong profitability and less impact on the macroeconomic. Under the influence of consumption upgrading, high-end liquor has been rising in price. We think that this trend will continue in 2022, and Baijiu Baijiu is still expected to remain high. From the Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu, the price of high-end Baijiu is becoming more and more obvious under the background of rising prices of high-end liquor, and the demand for banquets and consumption continues to warm up, so the demand for second high-end liquor is expected to continue to increase. With the current high-end Baijiu nationalization and expansion of the province, the performance of the second high-end Baijiu is still worth looking forward to.
Condiment sector: the operation of condiment industry is under pressure this year. In 2021, the total operating revenue of q1-q3 condiment sector increased by 3.49% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 11.16% year-on-year. On the demand side, first, the epidemic has brought about the demand for hoarding of mandatory consumer goods. After two rounds of centralized inventory replenishment in 2020q2 and 2021q1, household and channel inventories are relatively high, resulting in slower terminal moving sales. The dealer's pressure on goods before and after the price increase also leads to higher inventory; Second, the prosperity of the catering industry has recovered slowly; Third, the new retail channel represented by community group purchase has an impact on the traditional channel and price system.
The negative factors gradually dissipate, and it is expected to usher in an inflection point in the second quarter of next year. This year, the seasoning industry is affected by rising costs and high inventory, and the fundamentals are under pressure. We judge that the industry is expected to usher in an inflection point in the second quarter of next year. On the supply side, there is limited room for raw material prices to rise. The demand side and catering side are gradually recovering, and the demand is expected to continue to improve. The channel side inventory is gradually digested, while the high base effect is gradually weakened, and the performance pressure is gradually relieved. According to the recent tracking, the inventory of most brands is 2-3 months at present, and the consumption scenario increases after the weather warms up in March. It is expected to effectively reduce the inventory in the second quarter of next year, and the turnover of products of various brands is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay close attention to the demand recovery and inventory at the current node.
Investment advice
Plate allocation: Baijiu > beer > dairy products > snack food > condiment;
Baijiu: we should pay attention to the high potential Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) of high-end liquor enterprises Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and sub high end wine enterprises.
Beer: it is recommended to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) with high growth expectation in future performance;
Dairy products: it is suggested to focus on Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) in the three aspects of production capacity, channel and product.
Risk tips:
Baijiu price rise less than expected, terminal demand fell, food safety issues.
