Industry perspective update:
Home furnishing: this week, the transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities (12.25-12.31) was - 13.3% year-on-year, and the decline was narrowed. We believe that the current valuation of the home furnishing sector has fully reflected the pessimistic expectation of the real estate. When the bottom of the real estate policy & the bottom of the home furnishing expectation is proved, the safety margin is prominent, and we continue to be optimistic about the current layout opportunities of the home furnishing head company. Focus on Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) self-improvement market. At present, the company's strategic level is gradually clear after the substantial adjustment of the management. According to the grassroots research, most dealers feed back that the headquarters has more and more improved the targeted product line for new channels, and the channel enabling team has also been significantly optimized. Dealers are optimistic about the growth of packaging & carrying channels in 2022. On the whole, we believe that Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) has undergone positive changes from strategy to terminal implementation, and the performance growth is expected to return to normal. Under the condition of low valuation, it is expected to usher in a double-click market in 2022.
New type of tobacco: in the HNB sector, recently, the police investigated and dealt with a number of illegal cross-border tobacco cases and seized a large number of overseas cigarettes and cigarette bombs, which will not only stabilize the stability of China's cigarette market, but also lay a good market environment for the launch of HNB. As a whole, China's HNB industry is expected to develop well in the future and remains unchanged. At present, it is still in the policy waiting period. In terms of atomization, we still maintain our previous view. After the publication of the draft of national standards and management methods, the current channel is still dominated by inventory clearance. Before the promulgation of the final regulations, the uncertainty of brand manufacturers may increase. Although the head manufacturers have pressure on receiving orders in China in the short term, the certainty of overall business development and pattern optimization will increase in the future, The Chinese business of leading manufacturers is expected to usher in substantial improvement after the final implementation of the policy.
Papermaking: the demand order of pulp paper is weak, the pressure of box board paper to warehouse is large, and there are too many disturbances at the supply end of pulp price, waiting for the demand to improve. 1) Operating angle: the operating rates of coated paper and double offset paper were + 0.73% and + 0.66% month on month, the operating rates of white cardboard were + 0.35% month on month, and the operating rates of box board corrugated paper were - 3.13% and - 2.41% month on month respectively; Affected by the off-season demand, individual cultural paper and white cardboard enterprises overhaul in January. 2) Inventory angle: the inventory days of coated paper and double offset paper are + 0.95% and + 1.16% respectively, the inventory of white cardboard is + 0.05%, and the inventory of box board corrugated paper is + 4.35% and + 5.89% respectively; 3) Cost side: Recently, due to the disturbance of many factors on the supply side, the pulp price rises in a narrow range, some pulp mills prolong the shutdown time, and the short-term futures price affects the trend of spot price. However, from the perspective of medium-term supply and demand, it is difficult for the pulp price to rise.
Pets: domestic pet food leader Guabao submitted an IPO prospectus, and the domestic staple food leader is ready to go. From 18 to 20 years, the company's revenue CAGR was 28.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company CAGR was 58.2%. The company started with snack business, benefited from the growth bonus of China's PET staple food, LED high growth with its own brand "mcfudi", excellent online channel operation system, popular brand image deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and strengthened brand building with the help of brand implantation + content promotion + cross-border joint branding. We are optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the rise of domestic products under the background of the rapid development of Chinese pets. The brand side is optimistic about the cost-effective pet food brand with independent production capacity and the high-end pet food brand with differentiated positioning, and the production side is optimistic about the pet OEM enterprise with high-quality supply chain capacity.
Investment advice
Home furnishings: recommend Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (Integrated Business & platform), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (concentration of domestic sales share & export profit elasticity), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (it is improving in many aspects, and there is a large space for valuation and repair).
Electronic cigarette: recommended by Warburg International (China's traditional flavor industry, leading in the field of HNB flavor and thin film, next year, overseas business is expected to take the lead and China will have huge space after opening up in China.
Papermaking: it is recommended to pay attention to Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) (special paper price increase & pulp price decline & HNB policy expectation is gradually clear, Laizhou project is signed to increase the performance for 22 years, and the compound growth rate of the main industry is expected to be 25% + from 2022 to 2024).
risk factor
The extent and duration of the slowdown in China's consumption growth exceeded expectations; Real estate sales have been shrinking sharply for a long time; The rising range and time of chemical raw material prices exceeded expectations; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
