In the post subsidy era, the power trading policy may become an important incentive on the generation side
Recently, various provinces have successively issued policies on power market transactions in 22 years and made certain plans for transaction scale and electricity price. Among them, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Hebei provinces have completed power market transactions in 22 years: the total transaction power of Jiangsu Province is 264.729 billion kwh, with an average price of 467.76 yuan / MWh, of which the transaction price of green power is 513.89 yuan / MWh; The total transaction power of Guangdong Province is 254.164 billion kwh, with an average price of 497.04 yuan / MWh, of which the average price of green power is 513.89 yuan / MWh, an increase of 18.38% and 13.44% over the benchmark price. The total trading volume of Hebei Province is 66.69 billion kw, with an average price of 437.25 yuan / MWh, an increase of 17.54% over the benchmark price. The power market transactions in other provinces are still in progress in 2022, and the green power transaction price is expected to exceed the benchmark coal price.
The rise of green power transaction price is conducive to the transformation of energy structure of the whole society, and stimulates industrial and commercial users to continue to develop distributed photovoltaic and carry out power transactions in the post subsidy era. We expect that in 2022, under the general trend of new energy parity and marketization, the demand for photovoltaic power stations will continue to rise steadily, stimulating the demand for modules and inverters.
The price reduction effect of silicon material is initially shown, and the industrial volume in the first quarter is expected to break through the bottleneck
This week, the price of silicon material is reduced by 6 yuan / kg to 230 yuan / kg, which is slightly narrower than that of last week. The price has decreased by 14.8% compared with the high point in 2021 (270 yuan / kg), of which the lowest transaction price is about 210 yuan / kg. 166mm monocrystalline silicon increased by 1.0% to 4.95 yuan / piece. In terms of components, all sizes of components are reduced by 2.6%. Up to now, the price of silicon material has not reached the downstream expectations, and the purchase quantity signed is still restrained, but the price reduction trend has been clear. The price of silicon wafer tends to be stable, with a slight increase, which is caused by tight supply. Affected by the downward expectation of silicon price, the operating rate of battery and module end began to rise, and the average market price entered a reasonable range and is expected to rise slightly. We expect that the subsequent price reduction trend of silicon materials will continue, and the profits will continue to be distributed to the downstream to stimulate downstream demand and guide the supply volume of the whole industry. The installed capacity is expected to break the expectation in the first quarter.
Investment advice
The electricity market transaction stimulates the demand for installed capacity. It is suggested to pay attention to the inverter plates Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; It is expected that the follow-up whole industry chain will continue to reduce prices, which is conducive to the outbreak of downstream demand. The demand in the first quarter is expected to be not weak in the off-season, and the profitability of component links will pick up. It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , etc.
Risk statement
The installed capacity of the industry was less than expected, the epidemic intensified, and the global economy was seriously affected.
