Investment strategy: at the beginning of the new year, the international coal market was volatile. The Ministry of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia issued a notice. Due to the shortage of coal supply for Chinese power plants from January to February this year, in order to avoid China’s power crisis, it was decided to ban all coal exports from January 1 to 31, All coal production is supplied to Chinese power plants (Note: the Indonesian government requires domestic coal enterprises to supply domestic power plants at a low price, while the international price is high, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to supply China is weak). Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, with a total output of 560 million tons in 2021 (as of December 10), which is expected to be more than 600 million tons in the whole year, including 360 million tons of coal from January to October. China has imported 293 million tons of coal in the first 11 months, including 178 million tons from Indonesia, accounting for 60% of the total import. It imports about 16 million tons of coal from Indonesia every month. Considering that China’s monthly China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal supply is about 300 million tons, Indonesian coal accounts for about 5% of China’s supply, of which coastal areas are more dependent. Although the Indonesian government’s move is still controversial in China, it also shows the current situation of insufficient supply and demand in the international coal market. We believe that this event has a certain boost to China’s short-term coal price. In the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to maintain high profitability. Under the dual carbon goal, coal enterprises urgently need to transform, invest in energy Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and others mainly focus on new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and willingness. The transformation of new energy direction is conducive to improving the overall sector valuation level (at present, the PE valuation is 5-6 times), and the coal assets need to be repriced, Continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. Thermal coal stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of thermal coal: the Chinese market is bottoming out. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 800 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, continuing the decline. In terms of supply, more coal mines were shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, and the supply fell back. However, due to the supply guarantee policy, the coal storage in the power plant is still at a high level, and the purchasing enthusiasm is poor. In addition, the shipping cost is upside down, and the traders and platforms are negatively shipping. A new round of price reduction has been started in the main producing areas, and the price of most coal mines ranges from 50-120 yuan. In terms of demand, the inventory of the power plant continued to decline, but the inventory was still high, the daily consumption growth was lower than expected, and the price was generally depressed to slow down the purchase. Overall, the Chinese market is in the process of bottoming.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: the market supported by both supply and demand continues to improve. This week, the price of mainstream coking coal was flat, and the price (including tax) of Shanxi main coking coal warehouse in Jingtang Port was increased by 2450 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, due to the completion of the annual task of coal mines in the main producing areas, superimposed on the impact of safety and environmental protection, production suspension and production restriction continued, and the supply decreased; In terms of import, the customs clearance at Ganqi Maodu port is still low. The customs clearance this week lasted 4 days, with an average of 87 vehicles per day (mom-13). The tradable resources at the port have been very limited, the coal price is stable at a high level, and the Mongolian coal market is stable, medium and strong. In terms of demand, the second level early warning weather has been lifted in Tangshan, the blast furnace is expected to resume production, and the demand for coke is expected to gradually increase. This year, the coal mine holiday is ahead of schedule, and most coke enterprises actively replenish the warehouse to support the good operation of coal prices. On the whole, China’s coking coal market sentiment is high, the supply is further tightened, the procurement is active, and the coal price is stable at a high level. Follow up attention will be paid to the resumption of downstream coking enterprises and the production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games.
Coke summary and Outlook: supply continues to tighten and replenishment demand increases. As of December 31, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2660 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, and the national average profit per ton of coke was about 58 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the first round of coke price increase has been basically implemented, the production enthusiasm has been improved, and the operating load has increased slightly. However, the price of raw coal has increased, the cost has increased, the coking profit has not improved, some coke enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the continuous disturbance of environmental protection and production restriction policy has restrained the recovery of supply side. In terms of demand, near the end of the year, the horizontal control of crude steel and the dual control of energy consumption have basically ended. At the same time, the secondary early warning of environmental protection has been lifted in Tangshan. The commencement of steel plant has rebounded slightly this week. There is also an expectation of increasing production in the South steel plant in the new year. It is expected that the demand for Coke will gradually increase. On the whole, the coke supply is still tight. With the increase of the start-up demand of the steel plant, the coke price continues to rise. Follow up attention will be paid to the resumption of work and production of the steel plant and the production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games.
Power coal: the port coal price fell and the port inventory increased. (1) As of December 31, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 800 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of December 30, the price of Newcastle thermal coal was US $170.59/ton, down 9.0% on a weekly basis. (3) As of December 31, the transfer in volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 415000 tons, with a decrease of 140000 tons compared with the ring road. (4) As of December 31, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.74 million tons, an increase of 350000 tons on a weekly basis; The inventory at the Yangtze River port was 3.57 million tons, a decrease of 270000 tons on a weekly basis.
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China was flat, and the inventory of coking plants increased month on month. (1) As of December 30, the price increase (including tax) of Shanxi main coke coal depot of Jingtang Port was 2450 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. (2) As of December 30, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was US $377.50/ton, up 2.86% on a weekly basis. (3) As of December 31, the total inventory of coking coal of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 6.6228 million tons, an increase of 246200 tons on a weekly basis.
Coke: the price rose month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant increased. (1) As of December 31, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2660 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of December 31, the coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 62.12%, with a week on week increase of 0.42%. (3) As of December 24, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, with a decrease of 0.42% on a weekly basis. (4) As of December 31, three types of coking enterprises (production capacity)
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2 million tons) total coke inventory was 436100 tons, with an increase of 56000 tons around the ring.
Review of industry highlights: (1) the uneven profit distribution of coal and electricity is still obvious, and the profit growth of coal industry is further expanded; (2) the first million KW unit of China’s largest thermal power project under construction is put into operation; (3) the planning publicity of Taigemiao mining area in Xinjie, Inner Mongolia has a total planning scale of 56 million tons / year; (4) there are 687 coal mine intelligent mining faces in China; (5) Chinese and Indian enterprises sign coal purchase and sales contracts again
Risk tip: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Coal import impact risk.
