As of December 31, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.60% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.39% this week. Steel sector rose 2.42%; Among the sub plates, ordinary steel plate increased by 0.00%, and special material plate increased by 9.52%.
Steel market: the supply of steel mills has increased slightly, and the demand for winter storage has not been fulfilled
This week, the decline in steel prices slowed down, the supply increased slightly, and the demand for winter storage has not been fulfilled. Steel prices fell this week, spot prices of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling decreased by 2.26%, 1.61% and 1.43% respectively, and the price of medium plate decreased by 0.79%. Resumption of trading this week's steel market performance, steel prices continued to decline. Steel enterprises in all regions of the country have issued winter storage policies, the prices are generally high, the acceptance of traders is low, and most of them are wait-and-see. Under the temptation of profits, iron and steel production enterprises are willing to resume production, and the supply side will begin to recover gradually. In the short term, China's steel market will maintain a weak decline. In terms of special steel, stainless steel has good support for a long time, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention. The price of stainless steel fluctuated upward recently, the transaction continued to improve, and the market recovered. In the long run, with the support of the national carbon peak policy, the reduction of crude steel production has become a deterministic trend, which is important for the price and profit of stainless steel. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) and other targets. As the core metal material in the field of new energy vehicles, electrical steel is also a plate worthy of attention. Electrical steel is the motor and core material of new energy vehicles. Under the resonance of carbon neutralization at the policy end, accelerated admission of new and old car making forces at the supply end, and improved economy and convenience at the consumer end, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly, driving the downstream demand for electrical steel, The electrical steel plate has ushered in a major opportunity, but the valuation of Companies in the plate is generally not high. They are optimistic about the electrical steel plate for a long time. It is suggested to focus on Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , etc.
As of Friday, the price of rebar in the spot market was 4760.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.26%; The price of hot rolled coil was 4880.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.61%; The price of cold rolled coil was 5530.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.43%; The price of medium plate was 5050.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.79%. In the futures market, the active contract price of rebar was 4315.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.51%; The active contract price of hot rolled coil was 4411.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 4.44%; The active contract price of wire rod was 4393.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 6.73%. The myspic composite steel price index was 176.19 points, with a weekly decline of 1.96%, of which the myspic long material index decreased by 2.21% and the myspic flat plate index decreased by 1.66%.
Raw material Market: the macro policy is positive, driven by the expectation of resumption of production of steel mills, and the rebound of raw material prices is coming to an end
The iron ore market is strong this week, and the coke price is bullish. In terms of double coke, coke enterprises have smooth shipment and low inventory. Some coke enterprises are expected to limit production under the influence of environmental protection policies, and coke supply may become tight. With the reduction of crude steel output, the dual control policy of energy consumption is coming to an end, the steel plant is expected to resume production, and the enthusiasm for coke procurement is improved. Supply is tight and demand is abundant. It is expected that the coke price will start the first round of increase next week. In terms of iron ore, the resumption of production of steel mills is expected to be strong, and the demand for replenishment will increase to support the ore price. However, the market has low acceptance of high priced winter storage, and the rising space of iron ore market is expected to be limited. As of Friday, the price of Australian Pb powder in the spot market was 782.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 4.05%; The price of primary metallurgical coke was 2810.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 00.00%; The price of main coking coal was 2000.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 2.56%. In the futures market, the active contract price of iron ore was 536.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 1.92%; The contract coke price was 2801.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 5.10%; The active price of coking coal was 1855.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 15.64%.
Steel supply and demand: the steel market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the inventory inflection point is approaching
This week, the steel output increased. Compared with last week, the cold rolling, hot rolling, wire rod, rebar and medium and heavy plate increased by 2.23%, 2.71%, 2.85%, 1.57% and 1.37%. In terms of steel plant inventory this week, the inventory of hot rolling, cold rolling and medium and heavy plate increased by 3.31%, 4.31% and 0.60% respectively, and the inventory of rebar and wire rod decreased by 2.06% and 2.98%. As the impact of dual control of energy consumption and power restriction policy on the manufacturing industry gradually fades, the downstream demand for steel may gradually recover, limit production, upgrade and compress supply, and the steel price will remain strong.
Investment advice
With the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the China Daily report and the special steel leader who can realize the high prospect of the industry: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Leaders in traditional fields + hot emerging business targets are more favored by the market. It is suggested to focus on stainless steel rods and wires and mica lithium extraction leaders: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; And the high growth leader in the field of cold rolled stainless steel: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) .
Risk statement
Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; The economic downturn accelerated; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The demand for real estate steel fell sharply; Steel destocking process is blocked.
