Overview of this week’s non bank sector
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.6%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1%, of which the non bank financial index rose 1.28%, the brokerage index rose 1.54%, the insurance index rose 0.88%, and the diversified financial index rose 0.33%.
Anxin non bank portfolio next week
Insurance: AIA
Brokerage: Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) / Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) / East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059)
Diversified Finance: Lenovo Holdings
H shares: AIA / Lenovo Holdings
Epidemic prevention and control is less than expected / economic recovery is less than expected / risk of policy change
Non silver plate
Investment story
Interpretation of important events this week:
This week, the overall performance of the market fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rising 0.39%, including the brokerage sector rising 1.54% and the insurance sector rising 0.88%. This week, the stock trading volume of the two cities was 1.10 trillion, down 6% month on month, and the balance of the two financial institutions remained at 1.84 trillion, up + 0.5% month on month. For January, we believe that due to the increased downward pressure on the macro economy, the credit risk exposure of real estate enterprises and the rising expectation of the central bank’s interest rate cut, securities companies are expected to benefit from the central bank’s further liquidity easing policy. In addition, due to the low base number of securities companies affected by impairment in the fourth quarter of last year, the first quarter forecast is expected to achieve high growth, and the performance certainty will enhance the fundamentals of the securities sector. In addition, the issuance of the fund in December continued to be hot, which is also expected to boost the market of the wealth management sector again. Investors are advised to focus on Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) with greater flexibility in wealth management. For the insurance sector, affected by industry regulation, the loss of agent team, the base number in the same period and other factors, insurance enterprises are under great pressure to make a good start. It is expected that the marginal improvement of asset side fundamentals will become the driving force to promote the recovery of insurance enterprises’ share prices in the second quarter of next year, and the relaxation of real estate enterprises’ financing is expected to promote the improvement of credit risk concerns, It is suggested to lay out high-quality leading insurance companies with historically low valuation. ”
Sub segment view:
(1) Brokerage sector: we are optimistic about the market of brokerage sector at the beginning of the year. From the perspective of liquidity, it is expected to maintain loose liquidity in the first quarter. In terms of policy, there are still expectations for follow-up policies under the background of deepening the reform of the capital market and opening to the outside world. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the “good start” of public funds is worth looking forward to. It is recommended to recommend wealth management main line securities companies, such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) .
(2) Insurance sector: the marginal changes in insurance fundamentals in the short-term market focus on the mitigation of the real estate financing environment, driving the improvement of the asset side fundamentals of insurance enterprises. Considering that the valuation of the insurance sector is at a low level and the fundamentals are expected to usher in marginal improvement, it is suggested to lay out the leading insurance companies at a low level. With regard to the subject matter, it is suggested to focus on AIA, which benefits from accelerating the expansion of the Chinese market and the dividends of insurance enterprises opening to the outside world.
(3) Diversified financial sector: Recently, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued document No. 47 to relax the restrictions on the investment scope of insurance funds in venture capital institutions, which will help insurance funds increase the investment scale of venture capital institutions and significantly improve the development of venture capital industry. It is suggested to focus on Lenovo holdings, which is backed by the industrial resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and has high-quality investment institutions such as Junlian and Hony. ”
Brokerage sector view
This week, brokerage stocks rose by 1.5%, and the top three brokerage stocks with stock price increases were: Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) (+ 6.05%), Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (+ 3.97%) and Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) (+ 3.52%). The average share based trading volume on Sunday was 1104.4 billion yuan, down 6.5% month on month; The balance of margin trading was 1.84 trillion yuan, up 0.48% month on month. At the end of 2021, the average daily share based turnover of the whole year was 1136.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25%, the IPO scale was 543.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13%, and the balance of two financial institutions at the end of the year was 1.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14% compared with the end of 2020. The market prosperity was at the highest level since 2016. We are optimistic about the market of securities companies at the beginning of the year. From the perspective of liquidity, the central bank’s monetary policy is positive, and it is expected to maintain loose liquidity in the first quarter. In terms of policy, multiple favorable policies such as the comprehensive registration system have been implemented one after another, and there are still expectations for follow-up policies under the background of deepening the reform of the capital market and opening to the outside world. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the new market of public funds has significantly warmed up to a higher level. At the same time, many star fund managers launched heavy products in January, and the “good start” of public funds is worth looking forward to. From the perspective of stock selection, we recommend wealth management main line securities companies such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , focusing on China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) h and East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) .
Fund investment advisers of securities companies have been launched one after another, and head institutions have taken the lead. At present, among the 59 fund investment advisory pilot institutions, there are 29 securities companies. The pilot brokers acted quickly. At present, the number of officially launched fund investment advisers has expanded to 12, including the first batch of Guolian, galaxy, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , CICC wealth, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) , and the second batch of CITIC, China Merchants, Guoxin, Dongfang and CAITONG. As of December 29, 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) business has been online for only 60 days, the contracted assets have exceeded 7 billion yuan, and the number of contracted customers is close to 90000; Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) the number of customers participating in “worry free investment” exceeded 700000, and the authorized asset scale of customers exceeded 10 billion yuan. It is the first securities firm in the pilot institutions to sign a contract with an asset scale of more than 10 billion yuan. As an important starting point for the transformation of wealth management of various institutions, fund investment advisers promote the transformation of business model from “seller model” to “buyer model”. It is expected that the fund investment adviser business will develop rapidly in 2022. Securities companies have professional advantages in the field of equity and are expected to further expand the business scale.
Insurance Sector View
This week, the insurance sector index rose 0.88%, including New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (- 1.56%) / Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 1.42%) / China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (- 1.34%) / China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (+ 0.70%). Affected by industry regulation and the loss of agent team and other factors, the premium data of listed insurance companies show a weak trend as a whole. Considering the impact of the base, stricter supervision and manpower reduction in the same period last year, the pressure for a good start in 2022 is not small. We believe that the focus of marginal changes in insurance fundamentals in the short-term market lies in the resolution of asset side risks. The easing of the real estate financing environment has driven the improvement of the asset side fundamentals of insurance enterprises. Considering that the valuation of the insurance sector is at a low level and the fundamentals are expected to usher in marginal improvement, it is suggested to lay out the leading insurance companies at a low level. With regard to the subject matter, it is suggested to focus on AIA, which benefits from accelerating the expansion of the Chinese market and the dividends of insurance enterprises opening to the outside world.
