This week (December 27, 2021-december 31, 2021), the building materials sector (SW) rose 1.32%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.6%, and the excess return was 0.72%. This week, the net capital inflow of the building materials sector (SW) was -1.723 billion yuan.
[Zhou viewpoint]
In terms of bulk commodities, the previous central economic work conference had a clearer attitude towards steady growth, and proposed to "ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure" and "moderately advance infrastructure investment". Steady growth and credit easing are expected to be further enhanced, and the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. In the short-term off-season, the terminal demand is still weak, but with the implementation of medium-term structural wide credit, the counter cyclical demand represented by cement is expected to stabilize and recover, supporting the quarterly profit center. Under the "double carbon" goal, the supply side may maintain strict constraints on normalization, medium and long-term favorable plate profit expectations and valuation repair. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the marginal change of demand and the catalysis of macro policies. Cement plate and glass fiber plate are recommended.
1. Cement sector: the expectation of wide credit and stable growth continues to rise, and the sector is expected to start an upward cycle of prosperity and valuation. (1) Recently, the weakening of the new construction end of the real estate, the rapid rise in the price of basic materials and the tight terminal capital chain have restricted the release of downstream demand. The high-frequency shipment data reflect that there has been no trend improvement in the short-term terminal demand, but thanks to the short-term self-discipline peak shifting in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi and Chongqing to deal with the recovery of inventory, Under the double carbon policy, the industry supply is still subject to certain constraints, and the price is expected to be stable and declining. (2) The medium-term broad credit growth is expected to rise steadily. With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the growth rate of new real estate construction, construction and sales continues to be under pressure. It is expected that the issuance speed of Q4 special bonds will be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the medium-term cement price center higher than that in the same period of previous years, the sector profit growth is expected to usher in an inflection point, and the industry valuation is expected to be repaired. (3) At present, the relative valuations of price to book ratio and P / E ratio of the sector are still at a historically low level. In the medium and long term, under the background of carbon neutrality, with the introduction and implementation of relevant policies, industrial policies and supply constraints may continue to be tightened, which is conducive to improving the profit center and stability of the industry. The leading enterprises represented by conch have capacity layout and cost advantages and layout the new energy field, which is not only expected to obtain medium and long-term excess returns, At the same time, it may promote the revaluation of cement core assets with high cash flow capacity. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the catalysis of macro policies and the verification of the stabilization and repair of construction demand next spring. The recommended performance is highly deterministic. There are Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with market integration in Northeast and North China and great business elasticity.
2. Glass plate: (1) short term downstream replenishment and marginal improvement of supply and demand are expected to support price stabilization and subsequent repair of observable demand. On the one hand, the stabilization of short-term prices is due to the replenishment of stocks in the downstream under the very low inventory level and the expectation of price stabilization. After the sharp decline of prices in the early stage, the social inventory has been at a very low level, and the expectation of downward price has also been alleviated; On the other hand, it also benefits from the expectation of the improvement of the marginal supply and demand. The rapid decline of early prices and the rise of costs have worsened the profits of some production lines to a lower level, which is expected to accelerate their cold repair process and bring the expectation of the improvement of the marginal supply and demand. (2) Considering that the current social inventory has been repaired to some extent, the sustainability of subsequent price stabilization and recovery needs to be driven by terminal demand or supply side factors. However, if the demand is repaired with the easing of constraints such as delivery at the end of the year, production restriction or capital, and the constraints on the glass supply side in North China heating season exceed expectations, it is expected to promote the stabilization and recovery of the price side. (3) The supply side has entered a new stage and is expected to replicate the profit curve of the cement industry after 2018. With the strong constraint on the total supply after the tightening of industrial policy constraints, the supply side of float glass has gradually transitioned to a stage similar to that after 2017. The medium and long-term supply and demand of the industry has maintained a tight balance. In the stock competition, the industry boom center is expected to be significantly improved, and the volatility is expected to be significantly improved. Medium and long-term environmental protection will reshape the industry cost curve. The increase of fuel cost under the transformation of coal to gas in the original coal-fired production line in the north is good for the price center of the southern market. Resources are the main source of long-term excess profits, and large enterprises and high-quality production capacity benefit. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (the extension of industrial chains such as deep processing, electronics, medicine and photovoltaic glass is quite bright, and the dividend rate is high), Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (photovoltaic glass is vigorously expanded, and electronic glass ushers in a breakthrough), and pay attention to Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
3. The glass fiber sector, the global economic boom, supply chain and other factors support the export demand to maintain a high level, superimposed with supply release constraints and other factors, the short-term tight balance between supply and demand is difficult to break quickly. Under the double carbon target, the installed capacity of wind power in the medium term increased significantly compared with that during the 13th Five Year Plan period. The unit consumption and standard of glass fiber increased under the trend of superimposing large blades, which is expected to boost the medium and long-term demand. We judge that the high boom of medium and high-end categories is sustainable. After the preliminary adjustment, the relative valuation of the sector has gradually become cost-effective. If the prosperity of downstream industries is catalyzed and the superimposed profit elasticity is realized beyond expectations, the sector is expected to usher in repair. It is recommended that China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (the 14th five year plan is established, and the sharing of excess profits promotes high-quality development), Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) .
In terms of consumption of building materials, according to the short-term real estate data, the new construction and sales remain weak, and the completion remains resilient. In the follow-up, it is expected that the pressure on the demand side will still be reflected. On the profit side, the pressure on the cost side is expected to ease with the price transmission, product structure adjustment and raw material price decline; At the valuation level, most consumer building materials targets are already in the lower limit of the historical valuation range, and the valuation repair needs to continue to track the marginal changes of policies. Previously, the central economic work conference maintained the expression of "no speculation in housing", and also proposed to support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. The policy is back to urban implementation, and it is expected that all localities will implement purchase restriction Policies such as loan restrictions will be relaxed accordingly; At the same time, it is proposed to "promote the construction of affordable housing". It is expected that the construction of affordable housing in the future is expected to accelerate, and the real estate policy is expected to be phased marginal easing under the tone of maintaining stability, and pay attention to the opportunities for valuation and repair of building materials in the post real estate cycle; From the perspective of medium and long-term industry development trend, we are still optimistic about the share improvement and growth space of high-quality subdivision leaders. In terms of further development space and cash flow balance, the real estate market returns to a reasonable scale in the medium and long term. In addition to the fast concentrated large B project market, the old scattered small B project market provides a more long-term source of share improvement. In the medium and long term, we believe that quality growth is still the most important quality. In the next few years, under the pressure of liquidity tightening and three red lines, how to alleviate the contradiction between cash flow and income growth; Under the pressure of gradually blurring industry boundaries and constantly shifting customer concerns, how to improve the long-term competitiveness of business models is an important proposition faced by enterprises:
1) It is a growing leader in engineering building materials, especially the company that has established a small b customer development and multi category sales system in the sinking market. Core recommendations Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; It is also recommended to pay attention to the subdivided leading enterprises with strong growth flexibility and whose valuation has been at the lower limit of the historical range, and Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) are recommended.
2) The export chain still maintains a high outlook. Previously, export enterprises were affected by the rising cost of raw materials and exchange rate fluctuations, the profitability was under pressure, and the stock price generally corrected. With the weakening of price transmission, raw material fluctuations and the easing of shipping, it is expected to enter the profit recovery period. It is suggested to pay attention to the PVC floor leader Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) with strong demand and continuous penetration of categories, And Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688398) , Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) with high external demand and bright demand in downstream segments.
3) For the revaluation varieties with stable profits and high cash flow, it is recommended to Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) .
[industry segmentation perspective]
1. This week, the national cement market price continued to decline, with a week-on-week ratio of - 1.5%. Prices fell in Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Henan, Hubei, Guangdong and Chongqing, with a week on week ratio of - 30-60 yuan / ton. At the end of December, affected by the temperature drop and the early shutdown of engineering projects, the demand of China's cement market continued to weaken month on month, the average shipment rate of national key cement enterprises decreased to 47%, a year-on-year decrease of 12 percentage points, and the cement price continued to decline.
The average price of cement market in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 549 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of - 8 yuan / ton and a year-on-year increase of + 86 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 561 yuan / ton, with a weekly comparison of - 20 yuan / ton and a year-on-year increase of + 31 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the Yangtze River Basin is 543 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of - 20 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 38 yuan / ton; The average price of cement market in Guangdong and Guangxi is 570 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of - 15 yuan / ton and a year-on-year increase of + 50 yuan / ton.
The cement inventory in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 48.6%, with a week-on-week ratio of - 3%; The cement inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin was 60.4%, with a week on week ratio of - 2%; The inventory in the Yangtze River Basin was 63.6%, with a week on week ratio of - 2%; The inventory of Guangdong and Guangdong regions was 67.7%, with a week-on-week ratio of - 2%.
Investment suggestions:
The expectation of broad credit and stable growth continues to rise, and the sector is expected to start an upward cycle of prosperity and valuation. (1) Although the rapid rise in the price of basic materials has formed a short-term restriction on the release of downstream demand, the state of strict supply restriction of the industry under the influence of short-term energy consumption dual control and power restriction policy has not changed substantially. The overall inventory of the industry fluctuates at a low level and the supply continues to be in short supply, which will support the cement price center in the medium term higher than that in the same period of previous years, From Q4 this year to the first half of next year, the profit elasticity of the cement sector is considerable. (2) In the medium term, the stable growth of broad credit is expected to rise, and the repair of industry valuation is expected to continue. According to the economic data of the third quarter, the GDP growth rate in a single quarter exceeded 5, the downward pressure on the economy increased, the growth rate of new real estate construction, construction and sales continued to decline, while the recovery momentum of short-term infrastructure was still weak. Looking forward to the further acceleration of the issuance of Q4 special bonds, the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened, and under the structural credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, Positive sector earnings expectations and valuation upward. (3) At present, the relative valuations of price to book ratio and P / E ratio of the sector are still at a historically low level. In the medium and long term, under the background of carbon neutrality, with the introduction and implementation of relevant policies, industrial policies and supply constraints may continue to be stricter, which is conducive to improving the profit center and stability of the industry. The layout of new energy field by leading enterprises represented by conch is not only expected to obtain medium and long-term excess returns, but also may promote the revaluation of cement core assets with high cash flow capacity.
(1) The target excess return with faster compound EPS growth in the medium term is more significant. Key recommendation Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) (the extension increment of aggregate, concrete and other industrial chains in the medium term is large, and there are bright spots in overseas expansion); Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) are recommended. (2) Cement is one of the industrial sectors with the largest carbon emissions, and controlling output is the core means to achieve carbon peak. We believe that the medium and long-term industrial policy guidance will strengthen supply constraints such as peak shifting production and capacity replacement, which is conducive to the improvement of capacity utilization and profit center in regions with serious overcapacity and export-oriented regions, superposition of market integration, and Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) and other northern cement targets. (3) The cash flow and high dividend value of leading cement enterprises are prominent, and the medium and long-term industrial chain extension, overseas layout and potential integration ability deserve attention. The layout of new energy field by leading enterprises represented by conch is not only expected to obtain medium and long-term excess returns, but also may promote the revaluation of cement core assets with high cash flow. It is recommended that Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) (China building materials cement), Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) etc
2. Glass: at the end of December, the national average price of white glass for construction was 2131 yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 37 yuan and a year-on-year ratio of - 118 yuan. From the regional situation, the market prices in central and East China rebounded significantly, followed by South China and southwest China. Market transactions in North China, Northwest China and other regions are weak, and prices fluctuate mainly in a narrow range. Northeast China and other regions implement winter storage prices and mainly reduce inventory.
(1) The short-term supply and demand are both weak, but the social inventory is also low, and the repair of demand can be observed in the follow-up. Under the pressure of short-term energy consumption and environmental protection, the supply of North China may be limited in stages, but the demand is constrained by real estate funds and the impact of power restriction on construction, and the periodic release is significantly weaker than expected. Considering that the current social inventory has been at a low level, the recent accumulation of manufacturers' inventory actually reflects the weak rigid demand. If the demand is repaired with the easing of constraints such as delivery at the end of the year, production restriction or capital, the price support may be enhanced. (2) The supply side has entered a new stage and is expected to replicate the profit curve of the cement industry after 2018. With the strong constraint on the total supply after the tightening of industrial policy constraints, the supply side of float glass is also gradually transitioning to a stage similar to that after 2017. The tight balance between supply and demand in the industry is difficult to break. The industry boom center is expected to be significantly improved in the stock competition, and the volatility is expected to be significantly improved. Medium and long-term environmental protection will reshape the industry cost curve. The increase of fuel cost under the transformation of coal to gas in the original coal-fired production line in the north is good for the price center of the southern market. Resources are the main source of long-term excess profits, and large enterprises and high-quality production capacity benefit. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (the extension of industrial chains such as deep processing, electronics, medicine and photovoltaic glass is quite bright, and the dividend rate is high), Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (photovoltaic glass is vigorously expanded, and electronic glass ushers in a breakthrough), and pay attention to Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
3. Glass fiber: Taishan Glass Fiber Co., Ltd. mainly produces alkali free roving of various specifications. At present, 16 tank kiln production lines are in production, with an annual production capacity of 905000 tons. The manufacturer's overall shipment is stable within the month, the reserved orders are OK, the wind power demand is supported, and the manufacturer has a high intention to support the price in the short term. There is not much supply of individual composite yarn products. Recently, the price of glass fiber yarn is stable. The manufacturer's external ex factory prices in the northern market are as follows: 2400tex jet yarn is quoted at 10000 yuan / ton, 2400texsmc yarn at 9100 yuan / ton, 2400tex winding yarn at 6400 yuan / ton, thermoplastic direct yarn at 7100-7200 yuan / ton, and 2400tex felt yarn / sheet yarn at 10000 yuan / ton. Electronic yarn: Taishan glass fiber Zoucheng Co., Ltd. mainly produces tank kiln electronic yarn. At present, three electronic tank kiln lines are normally produced, with an annual output of about 65000 tons. The main products include G75, G37, G150, e225, D450 and other models. G37 is basically used by itself. Recently, the downstream demand is slightly general. Recently, the manufacturer's quotation for electronic yarn G75 is stable. Now the mainstream quotation is about 14500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price including tax of class a products is slightly different from that of different customers. The actual transaction is according to the contract, but the manufacturer has few sources of goods for export and has a large self consumption. Wooden pallet packaging and plastic pipe recycling, with a time limit of 3 months. The main shipping areas are Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang. At present, the production and marketing of China's electronic cloth (7628 cloth) market is slightly general. Now the mainstream quotation is about 6.0 yuan / m, and the actual transaction is based on the contract.
The global economy resonates and recovers, and the export demand remains high. Under the improvement of demand and the replenishment of inventory in the industrial chain, the short-term tension between supply and demand will continue. The recovery of demand in automobile and other fields is expected to be a new focus in the follow-up. It is optimistic that the upward cycle of this round of glass fiber boom is expected to exceed expectations. More importantly, with the increasingly clear pattern of the industry and the trend of "the strong is always strong", leading enterprises will start a new round of leadership through structural upgrading with the "positive feedback cycle" of cost advantage. (1) The current steep cost curve originates from the production efficiency advantages and management advantages realized by leading enterprises through production equipment and process technology, and is reflected in the significant gap between enterprises in energy consumption, labor productivity and factor cost. When the speed of technological progress in the production link decreases
