Focus this week: in December 2021, Zhuoding consulting released the Research Report on China’s e-cigarette industry, which analyzed the development of e-cigarette market, user portraits, driving factors, etc. in recent years.
The global e-cigarette market is growing rapidly, the share of China’s e-cigarette market is low, and the development space is broad
From 2016 to 2020, the global retail sales CAGR of atomized e-cigarettes was 25.2%, much higher than that of combustible traditional cigarettes 7%。 The e-cigarette market is growing rapidly and is gradually realizing the process of harm reduction tobacco products replacing traditional tobacco products. In terms of market share, as of 2019, the main body of the global e-cigarette market is still the US market, with market sales accounting for 48%, followed by the UK and France, accounting for 8% and 6% respectively. More than 70% of the world’s e-cigarette products are produced and exported by Shenzhen, China, but China’s e-cigarette market share is only 5%, with broad development space.
The majority of e-cigarette users are young
According to the survey data of new consumption in blue hole, in 2020, the main body of e-cigarette smokers will be young people aged 18-35, accounting for 66%. Compared with the overall smokers in China, women account for a high proportion of Chinese e-smokers, up to 27%, and the main users of e-cigarettes are younger; In terms of consumer concerns, quality doubts accounted for 39.3%, ranking first. We believe that with the gradual implementation of China’s follow-up supervision rules for atomized e-cigarettes, the industry access threshold will be greatly improved, and “small, scattered and poor” enterprises will gradually withdraw from the market, further driving the standardized, healthy and sustainable development of the e-cigarette industry.
E-cigarettes meet consumers’ demand for harm reduction, and the development of new tobacco is the general trend
Papers published in tobacco control in 2014 proved that some toxic components in the smoke of e-cigarettes were significantly lower than those of traditional cigarettes, with a gap of 9-450 times; In 2019, the CDC research showed that compared with those who did not smoke at all, the traditional cigarette users had a 165% higher risk of heart disease and a 95% higher risk of coronary heart disease, while two of the users of electronic cigarettes were 56% and 10%, respectively. If the traditional smokers changed from smoking cigarettes to smoking electronic cigarettes, the incidence rate of related diseases could be reduced. The number of smokers in China ranks first in the world. In 2020, the number of smokers was 365 million, accounting for 1 / 3 of the total number of smokers in the world. At the same time, China is the largest tobacco consumer and producer in the world. In recent years, affected by factors such as tobacco control policies, tax policies and the enhancement of people’s health awareness, the market scale of the global tobacco industry has been sluggish, with a CAGR of – 2% from 2013 to 2020. We believe that according to the performance of overseas tobacco giants’ new-type tobacco business in recent years, it can be seen that new-type tobacco has become an important transformation and layout direction of major companies. With the follow-up and gradual implementation of the specific rules for the supervision of atomized e-cigarette in China, it will effectively push up the industry threshold, improve the industry concentration and benefit the standardized management Leading upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry with product quality compliance.
Investment recommendation 1) HNB industry chain: key recommendation – Warburg international / shares (China tobacco flavor leader, new private license of thin sheet) [joint coverage with food and beverage team], Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (China Tobacco standard faucet, sole strategic cooperation with Yunnan tobacco, private enterprise) [joint coverage with light industry team]; It is suggested to pay attention to: Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) , Shanghai Shunho New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002565) , Shantou Dongfeng Printing Co.Ltd(601515) [light industry team coverage], China Tobacco Hong Kong and Bolton, China. 2) Atomization industry chain: key recommendation – smore International (leading global atomization equipment manufacturer), followed by fog core technology (leading Chinese atomization brand) and Shenzhen Aisidi Co.Ltd(002416) (leading Chinese atomization channel). Risk tip: the risk of new tobacco policy changes, the risk of sales / enterprise development falling short of expectations and intensified market competition.
