Event overview:
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in February 2022, China sold 23400250cc + medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 137.3% and a month on month increase of - 6.0%. From January to February, 48300 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of + 65.9%. Analysis and judgment:
The high growth rate continued in February, and the industry is expected to grow by 40% in the whole year
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in February 2022, China's 250cc + medium and large displacement motorcycles sold 23400 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 137.3%, far exceeding the same period in previous years (the sales volume in February 20192021 was 61, 24 and 9500 units respectively); The month on month ratio is - 6.0%, which is expected to be mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday. Considering that the Spring Festival holiday in 2022 is relatively ahead of schedule, we believe that the cumulative year-on-year + 65.9% from January to February more reflects the real growth rate of the industry.
In terms of subdivided displacement: 1) 14700 vehicles were sold in the 250cc (excluding) - 400cc displacement section in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 65.6% and a month-on-month increase of - 11.0%. A total of 31300 vehicles were sold from January to February, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 40.1%; 2) The 400cc (excluding) - 750cc displacement section sold 8600 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 780.7% and a month on month increase of + 4.7%. From January to February, it sold 16900 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 147.8%; 3) More than 750cc sold 10100 vehicles in February, and a total of 0200 vehicles were sold from January to February.
Structurally, 250cc (excluding) - 400cc is still the main sales force, but the displacement section of 400cc (excluding) - 750cc is growing rapidly. With the further formation of China's motorcycle culture, the release of the upgrading and replacement demand of emerging consumer groups and the marginal improvement of the policy of banning and restricting motorcycles, we expect the growth rate of the industry to be about 40% in 2022, reaching the sales volume of 400000 + motorcycles in the whole year, and continue to recommend medium and large displacement motorcycle tracks.
Spring breeze: 450sr is listed in the catalogue of the Ministry of industry and information technology, and the four-wheel export fluctuates normally every month
Two wheeled motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of more than 250cc in February was 5000, with a year-on-year increase of + 347.5% and a month on month increase of + 55.5%. The cumulative sales from January to February was 8100, with a year-on-year increase of + 143.2%. Since 250cc is the main sales force of the company, if it is expanded to 250cc (inclusive) and above, the sales volume in February is 7100, with a year-on-year increase of + 169.9% and a month on month increase of + 42.2%. The cumulative sales from January to February are 12000, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.9%.
In 2022, Chunfeng two wheeled motorcycle is suggested to focus on two aspects: 1) domestic sales: the imitation new car sr-c21 is officially named 450sr, with a maximum power of 37.0kw and a maximum speed of 190km / h. It is expected to effectively meet the upgrading and replacement needs of the original 250sr owner and become a popular model with a high probability; 2) Export: since 2021, after the four rounds of overseas market position has been gradually stabilized, the focus of the company's overseas market has gradually tilted to two rounds. The export of 250cc (including) and above in the whole year of 2021 and from January to February of 2022 has increased by + 227% and + 229% respectively year-on-year, gradually forming two rounds of overseas new growth poles.
Four wheeled ATVs: according to the data of China Automobile Association, 8200 vehicles were exported in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 37.2% and a month-on-month increase of - 53.3%. A total of 22400 vehicles were exported from January to February, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.1%. The month-on-month decrease in exports in February is expected to be mainly due to the decline in output under the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, which is in line with the fluctuation law of the same period in previous years. Considering the low inventory of overseas terminals and the increase in market share brought by the company's North American channel development, it is expected that the high prosperity of four rounds of exports will continue in 2022, and it is expected to achieve the export of 240000 + vehicles in the whole year. If the tariff is successfully exempted and the elasticity of freight reduction is considered, the profits are expected to increase by 300 / 400 + million yuan from 2022 to 2023 respectively.
Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) : continue to expand the product pedigree and start a new round of product cycle
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of more than 250cc in February was 2300, with a year-on-year increase of + 137.1% and a month on month increase of - 66.3%. The cumulative sales from January to February was 90000, with a year-on-year increase of + 48.2%. Since the second half of 2021, the company has continued to expand its product pedigree and ushered in a new round of product cycle: 1) there are few competitive products in the same level of four cylinder imitation race 600, and its performance continues to be excellent; 2) Race 350, race 250 and flash 300s support the entry-level displacement section.
Key changes in recent years: 1) according to WeChat official account, Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) Shanghai officially opened in late November 2021, and set up three major centers for new energy research and development, industrial design and international trade, to enhance the vehicle's appearance and foresight technology research and development capabilities. 2) On December 8, 2021, the company and Harley joint venture officially completed the registration and accelerated the mass production and landing of target motorcycles (338cc displacement, 500cc displacement and motorcycles agreed in writing by both parties).
Others: Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) followed by five books & the share of new books is relatively stable
Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) : according to the data of China Automobile Association, in February, the sales volume of more than 250cc was 4800, with a year-on-year increase of + 88.8% and a month on month increase of + 52.2%. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 800000, with a year-on-year increase of + 48.9%. Together with Chunfeng and Qianjiang, we built the first echelon of independent motorcycle enterprises.
Five books & new books: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of five books above 250cc in February was 11000, with a chain comparison of - 29.9%, and the cumulative sales from January to February was 2600; In February, the sales volume of more than 250cc was 1700 units, with a month on month increase of + 37.8%. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 2900 units. Since the stable shipment in May 2021, Honda's share has basically maintained a range of 10-20%. For Honda's domestic impact, we still continue our previous judgment, that is, the short-term impact on the independent brand is relatively limited, mainly due to the differences in the price and positioning of the two, but in the medium and long term, whether the independent brand can improve the brand and quality control will become the key to competition.
Investment advice
The current development stage of medium and large displacement motorcycles is similar to the SUV sector from 2013 to 2014. The launch of new models and new brands by the supply end vehicle enterprises accelerates, provides the core driving force for the development of the industry, and the market expands rapidly. Referring to the development history of Chinese automobile and the competition pattern of overseas motorcycle market, independent brands are expected to become the biggest beneficiaries of the rise of demand for medium and large displacement motorcycles. It is recommended that [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) , Chongqing Zongshen Power Machinery Co.Ltd(001696) ], and the relevant beneficiary object [ Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) ].
Risk tips
The tightening of motorcycle ban and restriction policies has led to the decline of motorcycle demand in China; The introduction of a large number of new models of foreign brands has led to intensified market competition; The second outbreak of covid-19 epidemic led to the decline of motorcycle export sales.
