Main points
Market Review
Last week (2022.3.7-3.11), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.22%, and the real estate sector fell 5.48%. The real estate sector lost 1.48 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index and 1.25 percentage points to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. A-share real estate companies focused on China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ( China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) . SZ), Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) ( Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) . SZ), Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) ( Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) . SZ) fell slightly, down 2.54%, 2.77% and 2.85% respectively. Focus on H-share real estate companies Midea real estate (3990. HK), China Evergrande (3333. HK) and Yajule group (3383. HK) decreased slightly, with decreases of 3.82%, 3.95% and 3.96% respectively.
Industry dynamics
Commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities were 1.9732 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 34.17%. Among them, 50700 square meters of commercial housing were sold in the first tier cities, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 31.04%, 989300 square meters in the second tier cities, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 24.61%, and 483200 square meters in the third tier cities, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 51.09%.
The number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities reached 18500, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 36.52%, including 45000 in first tier cities, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 32.92%, 8600 in second tier cities, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 28%, and 5300 in third tier cities, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 50.29%.
Industry news
In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, household loans decreased by 336.9 billion yuan, including 291.1 billion yuan in short-term loans and 45.9 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 1.24 trillion yuan.
On March 8, Zhengzhou municipal government issued the implementation opinions of the general office of Zhengzhou Municipal People’s Government on actively promoting the monetization and resettlement of greenhouse residential area reconstruction projects. According to the opinions, we will focus on three years to vigorously promote monetized resettlement and ensure that the resettlement of people will be completed in 2024. If the first house has not been relocated and the project adopts monetization resettlement, it shall be regarded as the relocation and resettlement of the first house.
Investment advice
The credit environment still needs to be improved. The Matthew effect of capital is prominent. Enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit. The relevant targets: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and can continuously obtain land in first and second tier cities, such as green city China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), etc; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the “two concentration” land policy and can obtain land through diversified ways, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ( Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . SH), Baolong real estate (1238. HK), etc; (3) Leading enterprises in the property management industry and enterprises that layout high-quality segments of the property management industry, such as Country Garden Service (6098. HK), Xincheng Yue service (1755. HK), China Resources Vientiane life (1209. HK), Baolong Commerce (9909. HK) and Xingsheng Commerce (6668. HK).
Risk tips
Tightening of real estate regulation policies; Guard against financial systemic risks.
