Industry dynamic information
Downstream tracking: the industry boom is in line with expectations, and there are disturbances in the structural supply of chips. The sales growth of independent brand car enterprises great wall, Chang’an and Geely in February disclosed this week is relatively weak, mainly because the epidemic has dragged down the short-term pressure on the supply of Suzhou Bosch chips and other industrial chain links, and there is a phased concentration of chip supply to joint venture customers; At present, the stock sales ratio of car enterprises such as Chang’an, great wall and Byd Company Limited(002594) is still low (full orders in hand), and the subsequent growth rate is expected to rise. Since December last year, China’s passenger car wholesale and retail sales have met expectations. From the monthly year-on-year growth trend, Q4 fell by more than 10% year-on-year in 2021, and the decline range of Q1 is expected to narrow. From April to may, it became positive, low in the first half of the year and high in the second half of the year; At present, the retail sales from January to February are flat year-on-year. The production and sales in the first week of March are in line with expectations, maintaining the judgment of + 5% for the whole year.
Upstream tracking: the high price of raw materials fell, and the expected profit fluctuated
The prices of some raw materials fell sharply this week, including aluminum ingots, which fell by about 6.52%. We believe that: 1) driven by the rising cost last year, the leading parts and components have strengthened cost control, and the impact is weakened this year; The tail manufacturers are gradually cleared under the high cost, the industry pattern is optimized, and the long-term profitability is expected to be strengthened; 2) At present, the terminal discount of the whole vehicle is low, and the ASP of this round of independent brand new cars is upward, with obvious hedging; Q2 began to bring high growth due to low base, especially after the sales volume of head independent brands increased significantly, the scale cost was reduced; 3) Under the electric and intelligent dividends, the long-term pattern of the automotive industry has not been clear, the current revenue (Sales) is more important, and the industrial trend, market share and competitiveness are still the primary considerations in the selection of targets.
In 2022, the functional configuration of new models will be upgraded again, and the vehicle will be intelligent or speed up
The growth space of the auto parts industry mainly comes from the increase in the value of single car accessories brought by the upgraded configuration of consumer functions and electric intelligent pure incremental parts. In 2021, the new configuration of seats, air suspension, car machine, micro motor and other parts will accelerate the penetration. In 2022, the new configuration application of Tesla‘s new or modified models is expected to continue to strengthen the trend of consumption upgrading, Supporting suppliers are expected to fully benefit from their strong sales performance (Tesla sold 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 87%). In addition, in 2022, the penetration of L2 + level intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit of passenger cars is expected to accelerate, the listing of intelligent configuration of new models may become an important catalyst, and the market’s understanding of intelligent vehicles is expected to be significantly strengthened.
Investment advice: a sector that cannot be underestimated β， Grasp the growth of high-quality targets α
The short-term configuration cost performance may gradually appear, which is mainly due to: 1) in the short-term dimension, the sales data in March / April is expected to improve, pessimistic expectations or gradual repair, and the valuation of the sector has been adjusted; 2) The competitiveness of China’s strong independent brand automobile enterprises continues to increase, and the medium and long-term market share promotion trend is relatively clear. In particular, 2022 is expected to usher in a strong new model product cycle; 3) Under the expectation of steady economic growth in 2022, the demand for automobile terminal consumption is expected to improve, the impact of superimposed supply side “lack of core” is weakened, and the boom is expected to accelerate upward in the second half of the year; 4) With the strengthening of consumption attributes and the trend of electric intelligence, the demand for functional upgrading and incremental links of parts is expected to open up new growth space, focusing on the independent breaking of subdivided industries such as seat interior, integrated die casting and connectors. For the entire vehicle recommendation, such as the \ , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) , etc.
Risk tip: the rise of raw materials makes the enterprise’s profit less than expected; The improvement of automobile chip supply did not meet expectations; Automobile consumption demand did not meet expectations.
