This week (3.7 ~ 3.11) focuses on the intensification of the contradiction between high cost and high supply of pigs
[pigs] the average price of pigs this week was 12.14 yuan / kg, down 1.68% on a weekly basis; The average wholesale price of pork was 18.35 yuan / kg, down 1.08% on a weekly basis; The price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 3.72 yuan / kg, up 0.54% on a weekly basis. In February, the central collection and storage briefly boosted the market sentiment, and the stock of fertile sows is expected to decline steadily and slightly. However, at present, the feed price continues to rise, the average loss of self bred sows has reached 500 yuan, and the average loss of purchased piglets has also reached nearly 200 yuan. The contradiction between high cost and high supply intensifies, and the breeding end may continue to be forced to lose production capacity in the later stage, The depolymerization range of fertile sows in March needs to be paid special attention. The pig breeding sector changes time and space, and the valuation still has a strong margin of safety, which is firmly optimistic for a long time. At the same time, we re emphasize that “cost control” and “financial stability” are the necessary prerequisites for the realization of enterprise performance in this cycle. It is suggested to actively pay attention to high-quality breeding enterprises such as Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) COFCO Jiakang, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) and Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) and so on.
[planting] the spot price of corn this week was 2800.1 yuan / ton, up 1.23% week on week; The spot price of wheat was 3195.8 yuan / ton, up 1.95% week on week. USDA’s supply and demand report in March raised the global corn production forecast for the year 21 / 22 by 790000 tons to 1.206 billion tons, and the ending inventory was reduced by 1.25 million tons to 301 million tons; The wheat output is estimated to be increased by 2.1 million tons to 778 million tons, and the ending inventory is increased by 3.3 million tons to 282 million tons; The estimated soybean output was reduced by 10.06 million tons to 353.8 million tons, and the ending inventory was reduced by 2.87 million tons to 90 million tons. The stock to sales ratios of corn, wheat and soybean were 25.2%, 35.8% and 24.7% respectively, compared with -0.13pct, + 0.46pct and -0.4pct in the previous period. Under the background of low global grain inventory, Russia Ukraine conflict intensifies and the supply and demand pattern is tight. Food security is still the top priority of all countries. China’s grain prices rise or boost the sales prices of grain growing enterprises. It is suggested to give priority to high-quality planting enterprises ( Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) ), followed by leading scientific research strength High quality seed enterprises ( Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) ) and transgenic technology companies ( Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ).
[animal protection] in February 2022, the chain ratio of porcine parvovirus vaccine was + 27.28%, year-on-year – 17.86%, CSFV vaccine was + 22.73%, year-on-year – 35.10%, Pseudorabies Vaccine was + 11.70%, year-on-year – 41.67%, foot-and-mouth vaccine was – 21.31%, year-on-year – 29.41%, pig ring vaccine was – 26.97%, year-on-year-40.37%. In 2021, 34 kinds of veterinary vaccines were newly registered, including 3 products of class I. In addition, we will actively pay attention to the research and development progress of non plague vaccines. In the future, the listing of new vaccines is expected to drive the growth of industry demand. At present, the animal protection industry is at the bottom of the valuation. With the GMP deadline approaching, the supply and demand pattern of the industry has improved. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies with strong R & D strength, comprehensive product coverage and cutting-edge layout of the pet market ( Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) ).
Risk warning: the slaughter volume of pigs is lower than expected Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuates sharply; The outbreak exceeded expectations.
