Key investment points:
Market review: from March 7 to March 11, the media sector fell 4.26%, while the growth enterprise market index, Shanghai stock index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index rose and fell by - 3.03%, - 4.00% and - 4.22% respectively in the same period. The media sector ranks 13th in the weekly rise and fall of CS primary industry, and is located in the central range, ranking 2 higher than that of the previous period.
Investment suggestion and rating: the international political turmoil, the sharp adjustment of overseas Chinese stocks, the sluggish performance of the Hong Kong market and the rebound of the epidemic in China and other factors occur at the same time in the short term, resulting in the decline of market risk appetite, the improvement of risk aversion and the large short-term adjustment of the market. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the relatively stronger risk aversion sectors such as book publishing in the short term, Some book publishing listed companies have the defensive characteristics of steady performance growth, low goodwill, high dividend ratio, low debt pressure and high dividend rate.
Proposals have been put forward in the two sessions on digital economy, copyright protection, games, metauniverse and other fields. It is expected that some of the contents of the proposals may be transformed into guiding policies and gradually implemented. From the perspective of the "14th five year plan" policies in some areas that have been released, the core development path and guidance have been defined for film, publishing, digital economy, copyright work and TV series, including virtual reality, 8K HD video, interactive video, immersive video, cloud games, film and TV series Book publishing and other applications in the field of cultural consumption will achieve benign and standardized development in the medium and long term. From the perspective of valuation, as of March 11, 2022, the valuation of the media sector was 19.71 times (TTM, overall method, excluding negative values), 72% of the average p / E ratio of the past five years and 75% of the median, which was close to the valuation level of Q4 in 2018 and was still in a historically low position. Considering the persistence of the current external systemic risk impact, maintain the investment rating of "synchronous market" in the media sector
Suggested attention: suggested attention: 1) the game sector is still under regulatory pressure. The suspension of edition number leads to a slight shortage of new tour product supply, and the product ranking on the top list is solidified. The edition number pressure will further test the long-term operation ability and sea going strategy of game manufacturers. Head game manufacturers have relatively strong content reserves and advantages in technology and operation. They are easier to be in the leading position in the long-term, diversified and sea going strategy of products, and relying on the stock game products can also provide support for the current performance when there are few new games online. In the future, the reissue of edition numbers will drive the recovery of new product supply and bring more flexibility to performance. It is suggested to pay attention to the top companies in China's game industry and give full play to their competitive advantages in the process of supply side reform.
2) there were a large number of imported blockbusters in March and April, and the supply of imported films began to recover gradually. However, at present, the repeated epidemic throughout the country may lead to the closure of some cinemas, which may still have a certain impact on the offline film industry. Combined with the weekly data of cat's eye professional edition and lighthouse professional edition, the market share of Wanda cinema and Wanda film investment has continued to increase, reaching more than 20% at present. The improvement is obvious. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the logic of prominent business advantages and increased concentration of channel leaders. In the long run, in the post epidemic era, compared with raising the box office through price increases, the core of guiding the industry to develop more healthily and healthily is to drive the repair of film viewers through the continuous output of high-quality film content, so as to reshape the habit of audiences going to cinemas. The normalization of the epidemic situation may continue to have an impact on the China Film Co.Ltd(600977) industry, but the market self-regulation mechanism of survival of the fittest will accelerate the clearance of inefficient Cinemas at the cinema line end and alleviate the pressure of competition; On the content side, it is expected to provide more performance space for film and television companies by promoting that film and television companies prefer high-quality products when setting up projects. In addition, after the industry rectification, more explicit restrictive measures are taken for actors' remuneration.
3) virtual human technology. After the new year's Gala of many mainstream satellite TV channels in China, virtual human technology has been applied again in the programs of Beijing Satellite TV, Anhui Satellite TV and Jiangsu Satellite TV Spring Festival Gala. Although at present, virtual human technology is still mainly used in Pan entertainment fields such as virtual idol, e-commerce live broadcast, short video and news variety shows, in the future, the application scenario of virtual human technology may be further expanded to intelligent office, social networking, finance, education, medical treatment and other fields. As one of the underlying technologies of the meta universe, virtual human technology has relatively large application space.
Risk warning: international political situation risk; The risk of repeated outbreaks and virus mutation; The tightening of regulatory policies exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Goodwill impairment risk; The quality of output content is lower than expected; The characteristics of project system lead to the fluctuation of the company's performance
