The sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high, the decline of subsidies weakened, and the subsidy drive was transformed into the market-oriented drive of endogenous demand
In December, the ideal deliveries of Weilai, Xiaopeng and were 10489, 16000 and 14087 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 49.7%, 181% and 130% respectively. In 2021, more than 90000 vehicles were delivered in the whole year; The sales of Nezha, GAC AIAN, krypton, lantu, Weima, Volkswagen ID series and leaders all increased significantly at the end of the year. In the context of chip shortage this year, new energy vehicles show their toughness and trend, and the supply of high-quality models drives the growth of demand; In 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the impact of subsidy decline will gradually weaken. The development of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will change from subsidy driven to endogenous demand market driven, and the industrial development trend is good.
The growth of each section of lithium battery is good. In the medium and long term, lithium battery is still the best investment track
Lithium battery sectors rose well this week, which verified our judgment last week: short-term adjustment is not a change in fundamentals. In the medium and long term, the lithium battery industry still maintains a high development momentum and is still the best investment track. With the gradual release of capacity in all links in the middle reaches of lithium battery, the high material prices this year are expected to be gradually alleviated. At the same time, battery manufacturers negotiate prices with vehicle manufacturers and gradually establish a metal price linkage mechanism, which can effectively transfer part of the cost pressure. It is suggested to pay attention to battery plants with global competitiveness and midstream material links where relative supply and demand are still tight, such as negative electrode, graphitization, diaphragm, etc.
The contradiction between supply and demand supports the lithium price center to maintain a high level and does not affect the downstream demand. The supply of lithium salt determines the release in the middle and downstream
Under the background that the demand for lithium battery continues to rise and urgent, and the installed capacity and production schedule rise month by month, the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium salt intensifies, the spot futures price and long-term single and individual price continue to rise, the difficulty and progress of lithium resource development are difficult to match the speed and magnitude of downstream demand growth, and the supply and demand strongly support the medium and long-term high lithium price. For vehicle manufacturers, the resources tend to be new energy vehicles, and the models and market layout have higher priority. The rise in the cost of a single link does not affect the model launch and the overall market demand, and there is still a price buffer for some lithium battery midstream links and auto parts. At present, lithium salt and concentrate inventories in all links are at a low level, while the growing capacity expansion in the middle and lower reaches, goods preparation years ago and concerns about lithium supply in all links have further amplified the demand for lithium resources in the upper reaches; Therefore, throughout the industrial chain, the strategy of upstream lithium resources has been continuously strengthened, and all parties have increased the global layout of lithium. Lithium salt supply has become the decisive factor for the release of capacity in the middle and downstream, and the profit has moved up.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders with global competitiveness and high growth tracks represented by lithium iron phosphate and high nickel: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the links and companies that are still tight in supply and demand, can obtain excess profits of the industrial chain and continue to expand: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) .
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials.
