Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00%, the CSI 300 index fell 4.22%, the SW nonferrous index fell 7.03%, Comex gold rose 0.88% and silver rose 1.29%. The prices of LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin, the main industrial metals, changed by – 9.39%, – 4.71%, – 6.36%, – 6.82%, 64.89% and – 7.33%; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in major industrial metal inventories changed by – 4.81%, 6.27%, – 1.28%, – 11.40%, – 1.79% and – 1.96%.
Industrial metals: the sharp fluctuation of nickel futures caused the price shock of metal futures, and the steady growth supported the price of industrial metals. Core view: affected by the capital factors in the international nickel futures market, the sharp rise and fall of nickel price leads to the sharp fluctuation of industrial metal price as a whole. We believe that the price fluctuation in the futures market mainly brings short-term impact. Under the background of stable growth in China, we continue to be optimistic about the rise of industrial metal price, and we still need to pay attention to the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on metal price. Aluminum: on the supply side, the start-up capacity of China’s electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, concentrated in Yunnan, Qinghai and other places. With the arrival of the traditional peak season, the downstream demand is better, and the social inventory of China’s aluminum ingots begins to show a trend of destocking. Copper: China’s scrap copper faces the risk of short-term supply interruption due to policy reasons, supporting copper prices; In terms of demand, the recovery of China’s spot demand in March was basically established. Affected by the changes of European and American sanctions against Russia, copper prices rose first and then fell during the week. Focusing on the focus of the following focus: followingfollowing the following following: followingthe Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , China nonferrous mining industry, etc.
New energy metals: lithium supply has recovered slightly, but the supply gap is obvious. Cobalt continues to be disturbed by transportation, and the price of lithium and cobalt is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Core view: in February, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 334000, with a year-on-year increase of more than 180% and a month on month decrease of about 20%. The month on month decrease in demand is mainly affected by the rise of raw material costs. Cobalt: the supply side continues to be tight, and the transportation cost of cobalt raw materials rises. Affected by factors such as the rising price of cobalt intermediate products driven by the rising price of overseas cobalt, the instability of shipping schedule and the increase of customs transportation cost, the superimposed inventory is still low, supporting the rising price of cobalt. Lithium: this week, lithium carbonate manufacturers have successively completed maintenance, and the supply has increased; Some lithium hydroxide salt plants are still in the maintenance stage. On the demand side, benefiting from the increase of high nickel orders, the purchase demand of lithium hydroxide has increased and gone to the warehouse greatly. The price of lithium hydroxide has increased rapidly and the price difference with lithium carbonate has narrowed. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , etc.
Precious metals: the geopolitics of Russia and Ukraine drives the demand for hedging. Under the background of high inflation, the price of gold may continue to rise. Core view: under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market risk aversion affects the gold price, inflation continues, and there is still room for gold price to rise. In February, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.9% year-on-year, which remained high. Comex gold price hit a record high of US $2078.8/oz during the week, and then fell back due to the news of the easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It is expected that high inflation may continue for a long time, the medium and long-term real interest rate in the United States is expected to remain low, and the price of precious metals is expected to continue to rise in the future. a key
Attention: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Zhaojin mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: the demand is less than expected; Supply exceeds expected release; Policy uncertainty; Geopolitical risk
