Market Review
Last week (03.07-03.11), the CSI 300 index fell 4.22%. According to the statistics of the key weight companies selected by us (listed in the market of 1.1 sector in detail), the beauty care industry portfolio fell 6.75%, of which the medical beauty / cosmetics / personal care products fell 7.88% / 5.07% / 7.30% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, the CSI 300 index has fallen by 12.83%. According to the statistics of the key weight companies selected by us (listed in the market of 1.1 sector in detail), the beauty care industry portfolio has fallen by 19.50%, of which the medical beauty / cosmetics / personal care products have fallen by 22.86% / 17.85% / 17.79% respectively. In terms of valuation, as of March 11, the price earnings ratio (TTM) of beauty care (801980. SI) further broke down to 45.61x, at a two-year quantile of 33.98%.
Core view
As “315” approaches, we review the public opinion data of medical and American in the past year and find that the industry has significantly improved the protection of consumers’ rights and interests, and the relevant public opinion risks are effectively alleviated. The amount of public opinion information in medical and beauty shows an overall upward trend. In the past six months, the number of new public opinions has increased significantly, reaching about 2 million pieces / month. Among them, the overall proportion of key public opinion increased rapidly, and the monthly proportion of key public opinion increased significantly from about 3% in November 2020 to 25% in January 2022, which verified the high attention of the industry; At the same time, from the perspective of communication content tonality, the peak proportion of negative public opinion information in recent half a year has decreased to less than 2%, and the achievements of standardized development of the industry have emerged.
Negative public opinion showed multi-dimensional structural improvement. From the perspective of the types of adverse events, since November 2020, the high incidence of medical and American adverse events has gradually transitioned from project experience to routine consumption, medical and American loans, medical and American advertising and other marketing links. At the same time, the amount of information related to illegal products in the whole network has decreased significantly, and has remained at 0 for four consecutive months since October 2021. In addition, from the perspective of negative information sources, we find that, besides micro-blog, always the main source of negative public sentiment, the platform for negative public opinion is gradually shifting from quiz, forum and other exchange oriented communities to mobile phone news, WeChat official account and other opinion leaders. The backward ranking of negative evaluation in communication community may be related to the overall improvement of consumption experience satisfaction of beauty patients.
We believe that with the transfer of places with high incidence of bad public opinion, the focus of consumer rights protection and industry supervision may gradually shift from medical service to medical beauty consumption marketing. From the perspective of industrial chain links, we believe that it is sorted according to the impact: terminal service organization platform channel pharmaceutical machinery manufacturing. Midstream service institutions directly facing consumers still bear the brunt in the hot spots of rights protection, while upstream pharmaceutical machinery manufacturing listed companies with compliance qualification and relatively perfect production and service processes have benefited for a long time.
Key industry trends
Guangdong plans to adjust the level of some medical and aesthetic operations; Russia and Ukraine went to war, and the cost of personal care and cosmetics raw materials was under pressure.
Announcement of key companies
Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) in 2021, the net profit was 958 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 118%. It is proposed to pay 21 yuan for 10 shares Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 21.13% year-on-year to RMB 782 million, and the proposed 10 share dividend was RMB 490 million Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) from January to February, the net profit was about 60 million yuan, an increase of about 35% year-on-year Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) from January to February, the revenue of cosmetics sector was 220 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 146.7%; Sihuan pharmaceutical and suisselle, Switzerland reached an exclusive agency agreement on cellbooster, including four water light needle products; Bawei shares sprint IPO; Deng Zhihui, chairman of Yisi health, holds another 1 million shares Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) plans to repurchase shares with RMB 50-100 million Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) has repurchased 2552700 shares in total.
Risk tips
Risk of changes in industrial policies; The terminal demand is lower than expected.
