The global delivery of 4q21 Tesla exceeded 300000 vehicles: the global delivery of 4q21 Tesla increased by 71% / 28% to 309000 vehicles respectively month on month, and the annual delivery of 936000 vehicles in 2021 slightly exceeded our expectations; Among them, 4q21model3 / y increased by 84% / 28% month on month to 297000 vehicles respectively (the delivery volume accounted for about 96.2%). We expect that the delivery volume of model 3 / Y (including export) of 4q21 Shanghai plant accounts for about 53% +, and the delivery volume of Tesla China in 2021 is expected to be 300000 + vehicles (new energy passenger vehicles are expected to account for 9% +).
In December, the delivery volume of new forces was slightly differentiated, and the total delivery volume of the whole year exceeded 90000 vehicles: in December, Xiaopeng slightly exceeded the expectation, the ideal met the expectation, and Weilai was slightly lower than the expectation; In 2021, the total delivery volume of new forces in the whole year is 279000 (it is estimated that new energy passenger vehicles account for 8% +), which is generally in line with the expectation. 1) In December, the delivery volume of Xiaopeng increased by 181% / 2% month on month to 16000, the delivery volume of 4q21 was 42000 (vs. 34500-36500), and the delivery volume of 2021 was 98000; 2) In December, the ideal delivery volume increased by 162% / 4% month on month to 14000, the delivery volume of 4q21 was 35000 (vs. guideline 30000-32000), and the delivery volume of 2021 was 90000; 3) In December, the delivery volume of Weilai increased by 50% year-on-year / decreased by 4% month on month to 10000 vehicles, 25000 vehicles were delivered in 4q21 (vs. 234-25500 vehicles under the guidance), and 91000 vehicles were delivered in 2021. We judge that the strong performance of new forces orders and the differentiation of short-term delivery may still be related to factors such as the supply chain and the rhythm of capacity delivery.
Industry demand continues to release, and auto companies hedge policy fluctuations through price protection: at the policy level, 1) the amount of subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% from that in 2021. We expect that the average purchase subsidies in 2022e industry will be reduced by about 5000 yuan; 2) On December 27, 2021, the exclusive insurance for new energy vehicles was officially launched. The vehicle damage insurance newly covers the three electricity systems, and additional insurance such as external power grid fault loss insurance and self use charging pile loss / liability insurance were added on the basis of the three main insurance (vehicle damage insurance / third party insurance / on-board personnel insurance). We estimate the premium amount of new energy vehicles and model configuration / selling price, accident rate / loss ratio As well as maintenance costs and other factors, the average premium of electric vehicles with a price of more than 250000 is expected to rise by about
<3%，新势力上涨幅度约10%（vs.25万以下或略有下降）。我们看好电动车需求持续释放前景，预计车企通过留存订单、以及限时保价等方式有望对冲政策波动。
供应链与产能或为关键：特斯拉，1）2021/12/31国产Model3补贴后售价上涨人民币1.0万元至26.6万元，国产ModelY补贴后售价上涨人民币2.1万元至30.2万元（补贴取消）。我们判断，当前特斯拉交付周期约12-16周，预计特斯拉车型售价与补贴退坡、原材料价格上涨、以及产能投放节奏等因素相关，持续看好2022E上海工厂扩产、以及德州/柏林工厂投产驱动的交付量爬坡前景，预计2022E全球交付量有望达140万辆。新势力，1）当前蔚来/理想/小鹏P7交付周期约8周（小鹏P5约12-13周）、叠加蔚来/小鹏限时保价，预计产能、供应链、以及物流等依然是销量爬坡的主导因素；2）预计2022E新势力合计交付量约55-60万辆，排序分别为小鹏/蔚来/理想。我们维持2022E中 Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) 乘用车销量约500万辆。传统车企方面，推荐 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 、以及吉利汽车，建议关注 Byd Company Limited(002594) ；特斯拉与新势力方面，推荐特斯拉，建议长期关注理想。
风险提示：政策波动；产能、供应链等不及预期；原材料价格上涨；行业需求不及预期；车型上市与爬坡不及预期；成本费用控制不及预期；市场/金融风险。
