Core view
List of chalk technology prospectus: 1) the importance of non academic vocational education has increased. From 2020 to 2026e, the scale of non academic vocational education market (recruitment / qualification examination) CAGR ~ 9.3% academic vocational education market cagr6 6%, increasing the importance; 2) The unique online endowment is the drainage of offline business. Chalk started with online training, and the number of offline payment has exceeded 150 million, and the conversion rate of online users has reached 67.5%; 3) Pay attention to the progress of offline business layout. From 2019 to 2021q3, the gross profit margin of offline business is 25.4% / – 11.1% / – 3.6%. The stabilization and improvement of offline business in the future is the core of whether the company can continue its new growth curve. If chalk technology can be successfully listed, it will become the second listed company in the recruitment / information examination subdivision track, which will help investors have a more overall grasp of the track development.
Plate resumption: from 02.28 to 03.11, CITIC consumer service sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.47pct China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) , Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) , Xi’An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) , etc. led the increase; Sipu Sipu (- 26%), Naixue’s tea, Haidilao, Huazhu group-s, Tongcheng travel, Helens, jiumaojiu, Ctrip group-s, China Education Holdings, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) led the decline. The spread of the epidemic superimposed the impact of geopolitical conflicts, and the pressure on the sector retreated sharply, with only some theme stocks showing some performance.
Industry news: the Health Commission decided to increase antigen detection as a supplement to nucleic acid, and China exemption released business data from January to February. The Health Commission decided to add antigen detection as a supplement to nucleic acid detection; Shenzhen district 11: all catering service units will suspend hall food; Shanghai: on March 12, primary and secondary schools in Japan were adjusted to online teaching, and kindergartens and nurseries stopped children from entering kindergartens; DPP Central Committee: it is suggested to eliminate unreasonable restrictions on Vocational Education held by social forces through legislation; China exemption released the operating data from January to February, and the revenue / performance increased by about 20% respectively.
Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect: the core targets of A-Shares were reduced, and Xiabu / Naixue were increased. 02.28-03.11 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) 98%/-0.3pct， Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) 66%/-0.5pct，6 Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) 9%/-0.3pct， Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) 48%/-0.3pct。 Jiumaojiu 37.4 / – 1.8pct, Haidilao 18.4% / – 0.4pct, Naixue tea 18.2% / + 2.4pct, sipping sipping 15.3% / + 0.2pct, Helens 11.3% / – 0.4pct.
Risk tips: natural disasters, epidemic situations and other systematic risks; Policy risk; The acquisition is lower than expected, etc
Investment suggestion: focus on the marginal relaxation expectation and continue to focus on the recovery layout. Maintain the “over allocation” rating of the midline of the sector. Since March, the epidemic situation in China has been sporadic and spreading again. In the short term, the operation of enterprises in the epidemic area will be disturbed again, and China’s business and tourism travel may decline again month on month. At present, the central government has also successively issued rescue policies for the service industry, and the prevention and control measures are becoming more and more accurate and scientific. The market is still looking forward to the gradual improvement on the edge in the future. Based on the uncertainty of short-term repeated outbreaks and the positive expectation of a midline epidemic stabilizing on the back line, based on the 3-6-month dimension, and the positive expectation of a mid line epidemic, based on the uncertainty of short-term repeated short-term uncertainties and the positive expectation of a mid line epidemic stabilizing the midline epidemic, and the three-six-month dimension, based on the three-six-month dimension, based on the three-six-month dimension, based on the uncertainty of repeated short-term outbreaks and repeated uncertainties of repeated short-term outbreaks and the positive expectation of a mid line epidemic, the positive expectation of a mid line epidemic stabilizing, based on the three-six-six-month dimension, slightly repeating Soviet logic, slightly repeating Soviet logic, and taking into account performance, valuation, subject matter, etc. taking into account performance, valuation, subject matter, etc. preferred preferred Guangxi Wuzhou Zhongheng Group Co.Ltd(600252) 52525252525252525258 Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Huazhu group-s, yum China-s Submarine fishing, etc. Based on the time dimension of the next 1-3 years, we suggest to continue to be based on the high-quality leader of the boom sub circuit, combined with the logical changes of the middle line, and focus on recommending China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , hellens, Huazhu group-s, jiumaojiu, Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , yum China-s, Haidilao, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Naixue’s tea, etc.
