Key investment points:
This week, the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry was 158.91, up 0.48 month on month. Comprehensively consider the operation and prosperity of chemical enterprises, and give the industry a "recommended" rating.
Investment suggestion: invest in the subject matter with expansion capacity, the subject matter of downstream industries and the subject matter of new energy materials.
The central economic work conference pointed out that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and conditions will be created to realize the transformation from "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. According to the energy statistical reporting system, the energy consumption for raw materials refers to that energy products are not used for fuel and power, but used as raw materials or auxiliary materials of products. When used as raw materials, they usually constitute the entity of such products. We understand that it mainly means that the parts used as raw materials such as oil, coal and natural gas are not included in the total energy consumption control. Therefore, for petrochemical, coal chemical and natural gas chemical industries, the energy consumption of new projects controlled by the total energy consumption has decreased significantly. The coal consumption of methanol raw materials accounts for about 59% of the total coal consumption, 79% of synthetic ammonia and 30% of PVC, The difficulty of obtaining the approval of new projects is greatly reduced, which is a great benefit for coal chemical industry ( Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) ) and petrochemical industry ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ).
The central economic work conference requires that next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, that all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, that all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and that the policy force should be appropriately advanced. A stable economic environment is more favorable to leading enterprises.
Looking forward to 2022, we believe that chemical industry leaders, downstream industries and new material industries are the key directions. This year, the problem of suppressing the capacity expansion of leading enterprises is expected to be gradually alleviated, the loss of profits in downstream industries due to high raw material costs will be alleviated, and the new material industry will be driven by new energy and emerging industries to usher in a good opportunity for development.
The tire industry has entered the strategic layout period. We judge that 2021q3 is the lowest point of the industry. In 2021q4 and 2022q1, the profits of the tire industry begin to improve. Based on three judgments, first, the supply shrinks and small and medium-sized tire enterprises begin to shut down. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, the operating rate of Shandong semi steel tire enterprises was 63.7% on December 30, 2021, and the operating rate under normal conditions was about 70%, The operating rate of Shandong all steel tire enterprises is 61.8%, and the operating rate under normal circumstances is more than 70%. Dual control and negative cash flow are two reasons, especially the net operating cash flow of some listed companies in the second quarter has turned negative; Second, the price of sea freight has been loosened. This week, the FBX index from China to western US ports was US $14615.86/feu, down 1.66% from last week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was USD 16679.59/feu, down 0.88% from last week; Third, in November, the monthly output of commercial vehicles in China was 350000, an increase of 3% month on month, the output of automobiles was 2.59 million, an increase of 11% month on month, and the output of trucks was 309000, an increase of 1% month on month. The bottom of the tire reversed. Under the background of shrinking supply and improving demand, according to Tencent News, incomplete statistics, as of November 3, 2021, 84 tire enterprises in China have announced price increases, and some enterprises even announced price increases until next year. On the whole, this round of price increases mostly ranged from 2% to 5%, with a maximum increase of 10%. We believe that the profit margin level of tires will gradually recover. In the long run, Chinese tire enterprises have outstanding cost performance advantages in the middle and low-end market, import substitution in the high-end market through channel forces, and the two major trends of internationalization and branding are irreversible. They focus on Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . These three enterprises have a significant expansion of overseas production capacity in 2022, as well as rubber additive enterprises Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) and conveyor belt enterprises Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) .
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has entered a period of rapid expansion. We believe that the core means to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the chemical industry is to use technological innovation to bring changes in energy structure, energy consumption level, raw material structure and product structure. Technological innovation is the key. Innovation can continue to grow. The R & D cost of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) in the third quarter of 2021 reached 930 million yuan, The construction in progress is 28.1 billion yuan, accounting for 46% of the fixed assets, of which the cash inflow of fixed assets purchased and constructed in the third quarter reached 7.6 billion yuan, reaching a record high. According to the environmental impact assessment, Wanhua Fujian Industrial Park plans to expand the MDI project to 1.6 million tons / year (Wanhua isocyanate company), and the TDI project to 360000 tons / year (Wanhua Fujian), Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) enters the rapid expansion period. We expect that Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 10000 tons of ternary battery materials and 60000 tons of biodegradable polyester materials are expected to be put into operation in 2022, bringing new catalysts. Under the dual carbon background, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) MDI, as an excellent thermal insulation material, is expected to usher in the demand explosion period. Moreover, the company focuses on Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) because of its R & D and innovation ability, capacity expansion and worry free growth.
The prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry is sustainable, and the transformation of new energy is in progress. The price of phosphate rock continued to rise, from 350 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 627.5 yuan / ton at present, an increase of 79%; The wet process industrial monoammonium in Southwest China was adjusted from 5300 yuan / ton on September 23, 2021 to 5550 yuan / ton on December 31, 2021, and reversed upward again; The price of yellow phosphorus was adjusted back to 38000 yuan / ton, up 61.70% from 23500 yuan / ton in August 2021; Enterprises with industrial chain integration benefit. In addition, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer decreased significantly in August 2021, and the export was limited. As a compound fertilizer industry with squeezed terminal profits, the profits gradually improved. In the first half of 2022, both Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) iron phosphate will be implemented, and the phosphorus chemical industry chain is still in the transition period from traditional chemical fertilizer industry to new energy materials. We focus on phosphorus chemical enterprises with industrial chain integration and fast transformation speed, including Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Shenzhen Batian Ecotypic Engineering Co.Ltd(002170) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) and other enterprises. Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) merger draft has been released.
Satellite chemical phase I ethylene project is gradually put into operation. According to Xinhua news agency, China and the United States have agreed to increase the export of agricultural products and energy from the United States. Satellite chemical will be encouraged to import ethane from the United States. The continuous implementation of satellite chemical light hydrocarbon integration project deserves special attention.
The leading development of coal chemical industry has ushered in a turnaround. With the relaxation of raw material energy consumption policy, the coal chemical projects blocked in the early stage are expected to be implemented, and the growth of enterprises such as Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) is prominent.
Private refining ushered in a good opportunity for development. The large-scale refining and chemical projects gradually extend downstream, and a series of new chemical material projects are expected to be implemented, focusing on Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) and other enterprises.
At the same time, pay attention to Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) with the sharp rise in the price of Kungfu pyrethrin, Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) with the continuous rise in the price of sugar substitutes, Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) and Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) that can still maintain the performance growth under the pressure of the rise in the price of raw materials, and Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) expanding to new energy materials.
Chemical industry leaders are the kings of the future. According to our observation, there are a number of leading companies in China's chemical industry. Compared with international competitors, they show obvious efficiency advantages in terms of rate of return, labor efficiency and turnover. The slowdown of China's GDP growth and the control of carbon emissions in the future have led to the concentration of resources in all aspects to the leading chemical enterprises, superimposed with intelligent manufacturing, R & D and innovation, and the increase of the leading market share is accelerating. At present, we believe that China's leading companies have the ability to plan a global blueprint and move towards global leaders. We suggest that we should work with excellent enterprises and invest in those enterprises with efficient execution. This efficient ability will make the profitability of Chinese enterprises higher than that of international competitors, with higher rate of return and larger scale in the future. Therefore, the market value of foreign giants is far from the ceiling of Chinese enterprises. For example, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , which is building an integrated industrial chain, continuously increasing R & D investment, multi category expansion and moving forward to a first-class chemical new material company with global operation, has made a synchronous breakthrough in original replacement, China and foreign countries go hand in hand, and is aiming at the top five Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) in the global tire industry in 2030, with high starting point, high standard Build Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) of world-class refineries with high efficiency.
We focus on the leaders in various sub sectors that are still undervalued, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , the leader in the tire industry Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , and Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) and Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , private refining giants ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ), the leader in the field of compound fertilizer Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , the leader in rubber additives Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) Viscose staple fiber leader Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , vitamin leader Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , coal chemical leader Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , new coal chemical leader Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , pesticide leader Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , glyphosate leader Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) , inorganic new material leader Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , satellite chemistry in C2 / C3 field, sweetener leader Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , plant growth regulator leader Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002749) , titanium dioxide leader Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) Spandex and adipic acid leaders Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , organic fine chemicals leaders Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , dicamba enterprises Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002391) , etc.
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a statement on May 15, 2020 local time, saying that the strategic position of semiconductor materials has become increasingly prominent by comprehensively restricting Huawei's purchase of semiconductors produced with U.S. software and technology. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Jingrui shares, Changzhou Tronly New Electronic Materials Co.Ltd(300429) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) and other enterprises. In addition, we hope that the new materials will continue to expand continuously, and have strong technical content of polymer anti-aging leader Rianlon Corporation(300596) , thermoplastic elastomer head Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.Ltd(002838) , brine extraction lithium technology leader Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi'An(300487) .
Key target information tracking
[ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of pure MDI was 20750 yuan / ton on December 31, 2021, compared with + 250 yuan / ton on December 24; The price of aggregate MDI was 20500 yuan / ton, up from + 1125 yuan / ton on December 24. On December 28, 2021, the company announced that since January 2022, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) China's aggregated MDI market listing price is 21500 yuan / ton (no change compared with December 2021); The listing price of pure MDI is 22500 yuan / ton (1300 yuan / ton lower than that in December 2021).
[ Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) ] according to Bloomberg, the FBX index from China to western US ports this week was US $14615.86/feu, down 1.66% from last week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was USD 16679.59/feu, down 0.88% from last week; The FBX index from China to Europe was US $14494.81/feu, down 0.01% month on week. According to Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) WeChat official account, in December 29th, the launching of the Linglong two phase project in Hubei and the launching of the three phase project were held in Jingmen. The strategic layout of Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) "7+5" has made further progress.
[ Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) ] on December 31, 2021, the company announced that the company received the notice from the actual controller yuan Zhongxue that the share entrusted management agreement signed by yuan Zhongxue and Du Yudai expires on December 31, 2021 and will not be renewed by both parties. The share entrusted management relationship between both parties will be automatically terminated from January 1, 2022. After this equity change, yuan Zhongxue and his concerted actors controlled 716 million shares of the company, accounting for 23.40% of the total share capital of the company. Yuan Zhongxue is still the actual controller of the company.
[ Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) ] on the evening of December 31, 2021, the company announced that the company had completed the general election of the board of directors and the board of supervisors, and Mr. Qin long, Mr. Lin Wenlong, Mr. Qin Jingbo, Mr. Jin Shengyong, Ms. Xu Huashan and Mr. Wang Yu were non independent directors of the third board of directors of the company; Ms. Xu Wenying, Mr. Song Xiliang and Mr. Li Xin are independent directors of the third board of directors of the company. The above nine directors jointly form the third board of directors of the company, and the term of office is three years from the date of deliberation and approval of the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2021.
[ Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the inventory of polyester filament was 18.5 days on December 30, 2021, with a chain comparison of - 1.3 days; PTA1 had an inventory of 3.228 million tons on February 31, a month on month increase of + 34000 tons. On December 31, 2021, the price of polyester filament FDY was 7525 yuan / ton, up from + 275 yuan / ton on December 24; On December 31, PTA price was 4950 yuan / ton, up from + 155 yuan / ton on December 24. According to Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) WeChat official account, the signing ceremony of Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) wet separator production line equipment was held in Hengli (Suzhou) Industrial Park on December 26, 2021. According to the agreement, Kanghui new materials of the company will introduce 12 wet lithium battery diaphragm production lines from Zhipu of Japan and Qingdao Zhongke Hualian, with an annual production capacity of 1.6 billion square meters, marking Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) officially entering the field of lithium battery diaphragm and increasing the market of chemical new energy materials.
[ Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ] on December 30, 2021, the company issued an announcement on the production of 300000 t / a EVA unit of Zheshi chemical. The 300000 t / a EVA unit was successfully put into operation on December 28, 2021. At present, photovoltaic material products have been successfully produced, with VA content of 28%, product brand v6110s and stable production.
[ Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ] on December 28, 2021, the company issued an announcement on the acquisition of part of the equity of Shenghong refining and chemical ( Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) ) Co., Ltd. by its subsidiary. Jiangsu Shenghong petrochemical industry development, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to acquire 13.2861% equity of Shenghong refining and chemical held by Jiangsu Fuquan Shenghong refining and chemical debt to equity investment fund (limited partnership) for the consideration of RMB 3.509 billion.
[ Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ] no update information yet.
[ Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ] according to the WeChat official account of the process industry, in December 28, 2021, Fujian Heng Hai New Material Co., Ltd. held the launching ceremony of the company's establishment and project, which was jointly funded by Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) and Fujian Fuhua Gure Petrochemical Co., Ltd., with a total of 3 billion 500 million yuan.
[ Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ] on December 28, 2021, the company issued an announcement on obtaining government subsidies. From January 1, 2021 to December 25, 2021, the company and its wholly-owned and holding subsidiaries added a total of 60.3234 million yuan of government subsidies related to income, accounting for 10% of the company's audited net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2020.
[ Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of monoammonium phosphate this week was 2891.67 yuan / ton, down 41.66 yuan / ton month on month; The price of compound fertilizer was 3272.50 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month.
[ Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) ] on the evening of December 28, 2021, the company announced that Yingcheng Xindu Chemical Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , signed the letter of intent on investment cooperation with Yingcheng people's Government of Hubei Province on December 24, 2021, which agreed that Yingcheng Chemical Co., Ltd. would invest in the construction of "green transformation and product structure adjustment and upgrading project of salt chemical circular economy industrial chain" in Yingcheng, And enjoy the corresponding preferential policies for investment promotion projects.
[ Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) ] [ Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ] no update information
