This week, the construction sector fell and outperformed the market. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development recently released the “14th five year plan” for building energy conservation and green building development. Photovoltaic buildings (BIPV / bapv), prefabricated buildings, green building materials and other subdivided fields are expected to accelerate development under the guidance of this programmatic document.
The overall decline of construction outperformed the market, and the segments generally fell: this week, the Shenwan construction index closed at 2215.0 points, down 2.5% month on week, outperforming the market. The industry’s average price to book ratio was 1.0 times, unchanged from last week. Subdivided sectors generally fell, of which the garden sector fell 4.1%, with the largest decline; The consulting sector fell 2.1%, the smallest decline.
Pay attention to the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development plan of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development: Recently, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development, setting the overall indicators and specific indicators for building energy conservation and green building development during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The plan requires that by 2025, the energy-saving transformation area of existing buildings will be more than 350 million square meters, the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings will be more than 50 million square meters, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year will reach 30%, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic buildings in China will be more than 50 million KW, and the application area of geothermal energy buildings will be more than 100 million square meters, The replacement rate of renewable energy in urban buildings reached 8%, and the proportion of power consumption in building energy consumption exceeded 55%. The plan also proposes to actively promote photovoltaic buildings and vigorously develop steel structure buildings and prefabricated concrete buildings. Under the guidance of this programmatic document, the development speed of photovoltaic buildings (BIPV / bapv), prefabricated buildings, green building materials and other subdivided fields is expected to accelerate
Infrastructure investment rebounded year-on-year, and real estate investment continued to decline year-on-year: in December, fixed asset investment was 7.0 trillion, an increase of 2.0%, of which the completed investment in infrastructure and real estate development was 1.9 trillion and 1.0 trillion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% and – 13.9% respectively. Compared with November, infrastructure investment picked up in December, and real estate investment fell further. In infrastructure construction, the investment in power, transportation and public utilities was 0.42 trillion yuan, 0.59 trillion yuan and 0.88 trillion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1%, 7.1% and – 0.3% respectively. The year-on-year growth of electric power and transportation is relatively large, and the year-on-year decline of public water conservancy investment is also significantly reduced compared with November. The central economic work conference in 2021 called for “accelerating the preliminary work and construction progress of major water conservancy projects” and the recent release of the comprehensive transportation plan for the 14th five year plan in many regions. The total investment has been significantly increased compared with the 13th five year plan. It is expected that there will be a large development space for transportation, water conservancy and other subdivisions in 2022.
Construction continued to decline, completion increased year-on-year, and the land transaction area decreased significantly year-on-year: in December, the planned land transaction area in 100 large and medium-sized cities totaled 150 million square meters, with a decrease of 55.8%, and the average transaction floor price was 3138 yuan / square meter. The construction, completion and sales areas were 160, 330 and 210 million square meters respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of – 31.2%, 1.9% and – 15.6% respectively. In December, the land transaction and supply area decreased significantly, the average transaction floor price increased, and the unit price of listed floor decreased; The new construction data decreased compared with the same period last year, and the completion data increased year-on-year. Due to the demand for payment collection of real estate enterprises at the end of the year, the completion data performed well and the new construction data was slightly weak. However, with the development of infrastructure investment and the signs of marginal policy easing in the real estate industry, we believe that the new construction data may improve.
Key recommendation
Key recommendation: infrastructure sector, Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949)
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: manufacturing investment slows down, assembly promotion is less than expected, and macro liquidity is tightened.
