The advantages and disadvantages of bapv / BIPV complement each other, and the industry shows a trend of diversified and integrated development. Photovoltaic buildings can be divided into rear mounted (bapv) and integrated (BIPV) according to the degree of integration of photovoltaic modules. Although BIPV has certain advantages in cost and performance, its development is still in the early stage, and bapv that can be directly installed on existing buildings is still the mainstream form. Compared with overseas countries, the installed capacity of BIPV in Japan, France, Italy and the United States has reached 3 / 2.7/2.5/0.6gw respectively, and that in China is only 0.7gw in 2020. There is broad room for BIPV penetration improvement in the future. In addition, from the perspective of business model, bapv has more characteristics of photovoltaic products, and relevant projects are mainly led by photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises; BIPV is closely connected with the overall construction process of the building, and relies more on the EPC capacity of construction enterprises, bringing new growth points to construction enterprises. On the whole, the advantages and disadvantages of bapv / BIPV are complementary. Photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises and construction enterprises are expected to deeply benefit from the growth of photovoltaic construction industry.
Under the dual carbon environment, the industry demand is accelerated and the leading enterprises continue to be laid out. The carbon emission of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) industry accounts for about 40% of the national total. BIPV / bapv building carbon emission reduction has great prospects. In October 2021, the action plan for reaching the carbon peak before 2030 clearly stated that “promote the integrated application of photovoltaic power generation and buildings, by 2025, the renewable energy substitution rate of urban buildings will reach 8%, and the photovoltaic coverage rate on the roof of new public institution buildings and new plants will strive to reach 50%”. We calculated that the installable market scale of building bapv / BIPV stock exceeds trillion, In addition, the installed scale of bapv / BIPV newly added buildings every year exceeds 140 billion, and the market space is broad. At present, China actively promotes 676 County wide distributed photovoltaic pilot projects, and China’s bapv / BIPV market demand is expected to accelerate the release. In this context, construction + photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises are breaking industry barriers and jointly accelerating the layout of bapv / BIPV market, including Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) + Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) + Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Gcl System Integration Technology Co.Ltd(002506) + Shanghai gangzhijie, Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) + Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) . The industry is developing rapidly.
Statically, the payback period of bapv / BIPV investment in industrial plants is 8-9 years / 6-7 years respectively, and the payback period of bapv / BIPV investment in public buildings is 5-6 years / 4-5 years respectively. We analyze two types of bapv / BIPV common buildings, industrial plants and public buildings. At the same time, each type of building is subdivided into three roof modes: “traditional roof”, “bapv” and “BIPV”. It is found that: 1) within the service life of 25 years, the initial construction cost of bapv / BIPV is 720 / 6750000 yuan respectively, The annual power generation is 1.2/1.5 million kwh respectively. Compared with the traditional roof, the static payback period of investment is 8-9 years / 6-7 years respectively; 2) For 10000 square meters of public buildings, within the service life of 50 years, the initial construction cost of bapv / BIPV is 7.8/7.5 million yuan, the construction cost of the whole life cycle is 12.6/15 million yuan, and the annual power generation is 1.2/1.5 million kwh respectively. Compared with the traditional roof, the static payback period of investment is 5-6 years / 4-5 years.
Dynamic: the investment payback period is expected to be shortened and the industry boom is expected to improve. In the early stage, many factors restricted the development of distributed photovoltaic in China: 1) the policy of “selling electricity by partition wall” was not fully implemented, limiting the economy of selling surplus electricity; 2) The consumption capacity of distribution network needs to be improved, which restricts the large-scale access of distributed photovoltaic; 3) Lack of project financing and exit channels. However, in the short term, the commodity prices of silicon, steel and other raw materials have stabilized or begun to decline recently. The costs of photovoltaic modules and steel supports are expected to decline in 2022, shorten the payback period of bapv / BIPV investment and improve the economy of the project. In the medium and long term, the investment and construction of the new power system will be accelerated, the scale of energy storage devices will continue to expand, the supporting facilities of enterprise microgrid will be improved, and the consumption capacity of distribution network is expected to be improved. At the same time, the state will vigorously promote green finance, which is expected to promote the prosperity of bapv / BIPV industry.
Sorting out investment opportunities: 1) construction enterprises: focus on recommending Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) (fully mobilize existing resources and actively layout photovoltaic business), Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) (leading enterprise in steel structure industry and existing layout of early BIPV business), and pay attention to Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) (leading enterprise in metal maintenance industry and jointly promote BIPV business with Longji); 2) Photovoltaic manufacturing: focus on Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (photovoltaic leaders actively enter the BIPV industry), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (take the lead in layout of distributed business and actively grasp BIPV opportunities), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (veteran component manufacturers actively layout BIPV business), Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) (manufacturer of ultra-thin glass for BIPV); 3) Microgrid Enterprises: focus on Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) (the promotion of photovoltaic business continues smoothly, and the ability to obtain orders for distributed photovoltaic + household energy storage is strong), Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) (actively promote the construction of microgrid projects and continue to benefit from the development of distributed new energy).
Risk tip: bapv / BIPV policy promotion is less than expected, component cost reduction is less than expected, and the establishment of industry standards is less than expected.
