Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on December 24, 2021, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 420 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 3.6 million barrels; Gasoline inventory was 227.7 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 1.5 million barrels; Distillate oil inventory was 122.4 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 1.7 million barrels; Propane inventory was 6646.4 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 3.559 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on December 24, 2021, U.S. crude oil production was 11.8 million barrels / day, an increase of 200000 barrels / day per week, an increase of 800000 barrels / day compared with a year ago. On December 31, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 586, the weekly number remained unchanged, and the annual number increased by 2 The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 90, with a weekly decrease of 43 and an annual increase of 31. Among them, there are 480 oil production rigs in the United States, the weekly number remains unchanged, and the annual increase is 213.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were chloroform (up 11.3%), silicone oil (up 10.3%) and butane (up 10.1%); The top three declines were: liquid chlorine (down 24.7%), maleic anhydride (down 22.6%) and Po (down 14.3%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were tetrachloroethylene (up 31.3%), dichloromethane (up 22.6%) and chloroform (up 20.3%); The top three declines were trichloroethylene (down 47.6%), liquid chlorine (down 36.0%) and thermal coal (Zaozhuang) (down 34.2%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are polyvinyl alcohol price difference (up 92.2%), MTP price difference (up 52.0%) and R410A price difference (up 50.0%); The top three declines were butadiene price difference (down 141.5%), maleic anhydride (benzene method) price difference (down 58.4%) and R134a price difference (down 41.8%).
Monthly, the top three products with price difference increase were calcium carbide PVC price difference (up 1939.2%), PTA (up 755.4%) and oil head ethylene glycol price difference (up 264.2%); The top three declines were butadiene spread (down 473.5%), styrene (down 207.3%) and butyl acrylate spread (down 163.5%).
Investment proposal and investment object
New energy vehicle enterprises represented by Tesla and Weilai choose PU synthetic leather to replace leather and PVC artificial leather, and all choose environmentally friendly PU leather with low VOC, which represents that environmentally friendly PU leather is the future trend and is expected to drive the demand for solvent-free products. In addition, polyurethane materials are made into power battery buffer pads and thermal insulation patches to provide reliable cushioning, sealing, thermal insulation and vibration isolation for lithium-ion batteries, which is an important incremental demand in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the polyurethane subdivision leader Shanghai Huide Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603192) (603192, buy) which actively distributes high-end polyurethane products and is about to double its production capacity after the new project reaches its capacity.
Traditional chemical enterprises extend downstream by virtue of cost and industrial chain advantages and serve sustainable development. It is suggested to pay attention to the coal chemical industry leader Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (600426, buy) with significant cost advantages and continuous project expansion, and the southwest chlor alkali leader Yibin Tianyuan Group Co.Ltd(002386) (002386, buy) with “one body and two wings” transformation and upgrading entering the stage of full realization and continuously improving the layout of cathode materials.
Under the background of the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity, we believe that light hydrocarbon chemical enterprises have great value under the carbon neutralization scenario because they have olefins with the lowest energy consumption and hydrogen with the lowest emission, which still need to be revalued. It is recommended to pay attention to Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (600309, purchased), satellite Chemistry (002648, purchased), Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) (002221, not rated) Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) (603113, buy).
Risk statement
The price of raw materials has risen sharply; The change of epidemic situation is less than the expected risk; Political risk; Capacity digestion fails to meet expectations; The market capacity of new applications is less than expected.
