Core recommended combinations: Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531)
New energy power generation:
Photovoltaic: the first batch of 75gw large base projects have been started successively, and the centralized demand is expected to promote the high growth of new energy installation; China’s installed capacity may exceed expectations, and the trend of energy transformation will be strengthened and accelerated. On December 31, according to the official wechat news of the national development and Reform Commission, about 75gw of the first batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects have been started, and the remaining 22gw will be started in 2022q1. According to the incomplete statistics of Zhihui PV, the new grid connected volume of PV in China is expected to reach 60GW (+ 25%) in 2021, exceeding the industry’s expected installed capacity level of 45-55gw, and the overall installed capacity is expected to exceed the expectation against the background of rising industrial chain prices. From the supply side, with the decline of silicon material price and the acceleration of wafer slicing, it will effectively alleviate the cost pressure of the industrial chain; From the demand side, overseas benefited from the fiscal year node and the tariff window period. The demand in the first quarter is expected to exceed the expectation. China benefited from the high enthusiasm of annual installed capacity + the promotion of large base projects, exceeding the expectation + the component price decreased significantly, and the demand in the first quarter is expected to recover one after another. It is recommended to pay attention to polysilicon material and battery faucet Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ; Component faucet Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; Large silicon chip faucets Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ; Inverter taps Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; Photovoltaic auxiliary materials: Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ; Layout Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) of the new technical route; Operation of photovoltaic power station: Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) .
Wind power / nuclear power: the annual wind turbine public bidding CR3 exceeds 50%, and the leading position is stable; At the end of the year, the construction of nuclear power was accelerated, and 6 units achieved FCD throughout the year. According to the public bidding data compiled by Fengmang energy, there were about 42.27gw public bidding projects in 2021. Among them, the top six enterprises, vision energy, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Sany Heavy energy and CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, all received more than 3gw of bid winning orders, forming the first echelon of wind power, with a total of 35.60gw, accounting for 84.21%, of which the top three won more than 6Gw, The total is 22.38gw, accounting for 52.95%, and the leading position has been stabilized. On December 28 and 30, Hainan Changjiang nuclear power phase II unit 4 and Zhejiang Sanao nuclear power unit 2 successively completed the first tank concrete pouring (FCD), driving the number of nuclear power units under construction in China to 6 throughout the year, and the nuclear power approval was accelerated at the end of the year. According to the average annual approval of 6-8 nuclear power units during the 14th Five Year Plan period and the investment of a single unit of 20 billion yuan, it is expected to bring about 120-160 billion yuan / year of market space. It is suggested to pay attention to the energy storage and nuclear power industry chain and join hands with the target Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) of Ningde energy storage ecosystem; Recommend Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) and parts enterprises with rapid growth performance Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Shanghai Taisheng Wind Power Equipment Co.Ltd(300129) , Shandong Shuangyi Technology Co.Ltd(300690) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) .
New energy vehicles: in 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, which is the last year of the subsidy; China’s new power auto enterprises released their December and annual delivery data, and Xiaopeng won the annual sales champion. The Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other four ministries jointly issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022. The framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system of purchase subsidies will remain unchanged in 2022. In terms of subsidy amount, non-public domain vehicles and public domain vehicles will decline by 30% / 20% respectively on the basis of 2021. Vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized. The subsidy policy is in line with expectations, and the smooth transition is from policy driven to market driven. Several new power auto enterprises in China announced the delivery data in December: 16000 Xiaopeng, 14087 ideal, 10489 Weilai, 10127 Nezha and 7807 Zero run. The above five auto enterprises delivered 58510 vehicles in December, an increase of 2893 vehicles compared with 55617 vehicles in November, a month on month increase of + 5%. In terms of the total annual delivery, Xiaopeng delivered 98155 vehicles, ranking first, with a month on month increase of + 263%; 91429 vehicles delivered by Weilai, a month on month increase of + 109%; Ideal delivery: 90491 vehicles, month on month + 177%; 69674 Nezha vehicles, chain ratio + 362%; 43121 vehicles were delivered with zero running, with a chain comparison of + 279%. In terms of recommendation, continue to recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) .
Risk tip: the installed demand of new energy is less than expected, the new energy power generation policy is less than expected, and the macro-economy is less than expected.
