Key investment points:
Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: under the requirement of “appropriate policy development”, the issuance of local bonds is expected to be ahead in 2022; As the real estate policy bottoms out and the margin of real estate financing recovers, the demand for cement is expected to improve. At the macro level, the industrial high-quality development policy and carbon neutralization policy are conducive to further promote the energy conservation and carbon reduction of cement manufacturers, optimize the industry supply pattern and enhance the competitive advantage of leading industries. (2) Glass fiber sector: SASAC issued the guidance on promoting the high-quality development of central enterprises and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization, pointing out that we should adhere to both centralized and distributed development, give priority to promoting the local and nearby development and utilization of wind energy, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , and continuously issue wind energy policies to support the demand for glass fiber for wind power. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as “recommended”.
Recommended cement sector: (1) macro aspect: the carbon peak carbon neutralization policy continues to be promoted, and the cement industry is expected to be included in carbon trading in 2022, which is conducive to further promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction of cement manufacturers, optimizing the industry supply pattern and enhancing the competitive advantage of leading industries. (2) Fundamentals: the price of China’s cement market continued to decline this week. Affected by the decline of temperature and the early shutdown of engineering projects, the demand of China’s cement market continued to weaken month on month and the shipment volume decreased. In the short term, cement demand will recover after the Spring Festival, and cement prices are expected to bottom out. In the medium and long term, under the requirement of “appropriate policy development”, the issuance of local bonds is expected to be ahead in 2022; As the real estate policy bottoms out and the margin of real estate financing recovers, the demand for cement is expected to improve. At present, cement regional leaders Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) are mainly recommended.
Recommended glass fiber industry: in the short term, the support of glass fiber demand is insufficient, the enthusiasm of picking up goods in the downstream market is general, and it is in the off-season market. In the later stage, the market probability of electronic yarn will continue to be weak, and the price is under pressure. In the medium and long term, we will continue to promote the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation at the macro level, and the future demand for wind power will be better. The addition and replacement of new energy vehicles and wind power provide support for the demand for glass fiber. In addition, from the supply side, the addition of medium and long-term glass fiber production capacity is limited, and the high prosperity of glass fiber industry is expected to continue. In terms of individual stocks, focus on recommending industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , and pay attention to Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Glass industry: in December 2021, the trend of the glass spot market was high before and low after, and the overall inventory of production enterprises was reduced, reducing a certain inventory pressure. Spot prices also picked up month on month, and the manufacturer’s benefits were acceptable. On the whole, the inventory pressure of production enterprises is still too high, and the production capacity is higher than that in the same period in 2020. In the later stage, due to the influence of factors such as the expiration of the furnace, the supply chain ratio has weakened, and the manufacturer has little production and marketing pressure. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass, Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually emerging, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing waterproof layers have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) are recommended. The gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) is recommended. The layout of “one body and two wings” of the company is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The leading Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) and Hong Kong stock China Liansu are recommended for the pipe plate. Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) are recommended for coating plate.
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; Market demand is less than expected; The performance of the recommended company does not meet expectations; The epidemic situation has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes in the macro environment.
