Zhou Du’s core view:
E-commerce:
JD logistics will indirectly acquire 66.49% of the shares of deppon logistics with 8.976 billion yuan. Deppon is one of the leading LCL freight enterprises in the direct mode and has an efficient and stable national logistics network. The two sides will carry out in-depth strategic cooperation in the fields of express, cross-border, warehousing and supply chain. JD attaches importance to the efficiency of performance, builds a moat in the integrated supply chain, cooperates with dada group to expand the radiation scope, and acquires deppon to further consolidate its leading position. The daily consumption of Chinese residents will continue to rebound, such as Jingdong, Dingyou or online retail. Suggestion: JD group.
Traditional retail:
Hemalin Li has officially launched the home delivery service in early March, and will be launched in all self pick-up stores in hemalin Li in the future. Consumers place an order through their mobile phone and can pick it up after 8 a.m. the next day. The distribution range is generally the community within 500 meters near the pick-up point. In response to the construction of a quarter of an hour convenient life circle, that is, a community business circle formed within a 15 minute walk to meet the basic consumption and quality consumption of residents’ daily life. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, and the sales of fresh, frozen food, prefabricated vegetables and other categories may increase. Pay attention to the repair opportunities of fresh supermarkets. Suggestions: HEMA (Alibaba), Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) .
Gold jewelry:
In Jingdong jewelry 38 Festival, the turnover of gold categories increased by 145% month on month, and the turnover of gold necklaces showed a bright performance, with a month on month increase of 187%. Gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high scenery. In the short term, under the situation of international turbulence, investment risk aversion has pushed up the price of gold; In the long run, the upgrading of the ancient process on the product side will stimulate terminal consumption, and the reform of changing the one-time price of gold to the weight of gold on the price side will promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. With the head brand actively expanding the sinking market, the market concentration is expected to continue to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Market review last week:
Last week (202203.07202203.11), the retail trade (CITIC) index fell 4.11%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.11pct. Among the 30 first-class industries of CITIC, the commerce and retail sector ranked 11th. Among the sub sectors of the retail sector, all sub sectors fell. The quantile of PE in the commercial retail industry is greater than that in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At present, the PE (TTM) of the commercial retail industry is 81.92, which is 96.65% from small to large since 2005; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe (TTM) is 12.44, with a quantile of 35.41%.
Industry dynamic tracking:
E-commerce: JD logistics will indirectly acquire 66.49% shares of Debang logistics with 8.976 billion yuan; The gold consumption of Jingdong jewelry 38 Festival continued to rise, and the turnover increased by 145% month on month; “Tiktok 38 quarter” female consumers grew 115.6% year-on-year. Traditional retail: online home service in HEMA Linli, which can be distributed in the 500m community near the self delivery store; Yonghui released the March 8th data, and the outdoor camping category increased by more than 300%; Wal Mart officially closed its last store in Shandong.
Investment suggestions:
Maintain the “overweight” rating of the commercial retail industry.
Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. We continue to recommend Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , and we suggest paying attention to Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Focus on the current situation of Jingdong group, focus on the implementation of the Internet, focus on the current situation of Jingdong group, focus on the supervision of small-scale enterprises, and focus on the supervision of small-scale enterprises. It is suggested that Jingdong group should focus on the current situation of small-scale investment, and focus on the supervision of small-scale enterprises.
Investment main line 3: in the traditional and new retail field, the business form of warehousing members is in full swing. It is suggested to pay attention to the positive layout of warehouse store business forms such as HEMA (Alibaba), Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) .
Risk tips:
Repeated outbreaks; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies.
