Main points:
Pig prices fell 1.3% to 16.04 yuan / kg on a weekly basis, and the willingness to fill columns was flat on a weekly basis.
① Pig prices fell 1.3% week on week. On Sunday, the national pig price was 16.04 yuan / kg, down 1.3% on a weekly basis; On Friday, the average wholesale price of pork in China was 23.08 yuan / kg, down 0.8% on a weekly basis. The loss of self bred pigs was 39.77 yuan / head, and the profit of outsourcing piglet breeding was 167.8 yuan / head. ② The proportion of low body reborn pigs in the market increased by 0.27 percentage points on a weekly basis, and the market supplement was flat on a weekly basis. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (12.24-12.30): the number of pigs within 90kg in China accounted for 10.53%, and the weekly ring ratio increased significantly by 0.27 percentage points, 3.16 percentage points higher than that in mid October. Affected by the low temperature in winter, the epidemic situation picked up; The market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm this week was 403 yuan / head, which was flat on a weekly basis, up 161.7% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1675 yuan / head, which was flat on a weekly basis, up 35.3% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ The inflection point of pig cycle still needs to be observed. From October 2019 to May this year, the stock of fertile sows in China continued to rise month on month, corresponding to the rise of pig sales before May next year, and pig prices are expected to continue to fall after the Spring Festival. In June this year, there was an inflection point in the number of fertile sows in China. From July to October, the number of fertile sows decreased by 5.7% month on month, and in November, the number of fertile sows decreased by 1.2% month on month, but the decline has been significantly narrowed. Since the beginning of December, although the pig price has dropped to about 16 yuan / kg, ordinary farmers are still in a profitable situation and their enthusiasm for column filling is stable; In addition, with the clearance of inefficient sows, the efficiency of breeding pigs continues to improve, and a large amount of pork imports need to be digested for two consecutive years. The inflection point of pig cycle still needs to be observed. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic in the pig industry, the pig price will be relatively low in 2022, and the industry is still in the stage of capacity clearing. ④ The valuation of mainstream companies is in the bottom area, which can change time and space. If the expected slaughter volume in 2022 is used, the average market value of each pig enterprise is Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 5127 yuan, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 4680 yuan, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 1689 yuan, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 2360 yuan and COFCO Jiakang 1902 yuan; Premium from the lowest point in history, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 50%, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 43%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 14%, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 13% and COFCO Jiakang 15%. From the perspective of 2022, the valuation of mainstream listed pig enterprises has entered a reasonable area, and it is recommended to pay active attention.
The price of white feather chicken was flat on a weekly basis, and the price of yellow feather was mixed on a weekly basis.
① The price of white feather chicken products was flat on a week-on-week basis. In the 51st week of 2021 (12.20-12.26), the price of parental chicken seedlings was 39.24 yuan / set, with a decrease of 1.4% on a weekly basis; The sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 938600 sets, down 18% month on month; The price of white feather chicken on Friday was 9620 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. In 2020, the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million sets, with a year-on-year decrease of 18%. The price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; From January to October this year, the national ancestral renewal volume was 1047100 sets, a year-on-year increase of 31%, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices rose and fell week on week. Affected by the covid-19 epidemic situation, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of the yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 was second only to that in 2013 impacted by the "human infection h7n9 epidemic" event, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 2021, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. As of the 48th week of this year (11.29-12.05), the stock of yellow feather's parents' generation was 13.458 million, and the sales of yellow feather's parents' generation chicken seedlings were 1.0398 million, all at the lowest level since 2018. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. On Friday, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast chicken was 6.78 yuan / kg, down 2.5% on a week-on-week basis and 3.1% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of medium speed chicken was 7.29 yuan / kg, up 1.4% on a weekly basis and 2.4% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of native chicken was 8.43 yuan / kg, down 3.3% month on week and up 0.1% year-on-year; Black bone chicken was 7.29 yuan / kg, up 2.97% on a weekly basis and down 2.4% on a year-on-year basis.
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and the leader of seed industry is expected to fully benefit.
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and we judge the impact as follows: ① the sale of GM corn seeds may begin in the second half of 2023. The revised draft may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production will be carried out as soon as 2023 and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. ② Corn seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. The promotion area of genetically modified maize in China is expected to reach 400-500 million mu. If the gene patent fee of 10 yuan per mu can correspond to a revenue of 4-5 billion yuan, the maize seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. ③ Seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) have obtained biosafety certificates for genetically modified maize traits; Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) has high-quality maize germplasm resources; Syngenta is a global agricultural technology giant and the national team of China's seed industry. Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) and Syngenta are expected to stand out in the commercialization process of China's transgenic seed industry. As it will take time for production experiment, variety approval and performance fulfillment, it is expected that the seed industry sector will fluctuate upward.
The prices of corn, soybean and soybean meal may remain relatively high.
① Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. According to the supply and demand report of USDA in December 2021, the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 is 25.6%, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.1 percentage point higher than that in November, the lowest since 16 / 17. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in December: the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 is 1.83 million tons, the predicted balance is 1.59 million tons higher than that in November and 6.24 million tons lower than that in 2020 / 21. In 21 / 22, China's corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price may remain relatively high in 2022. ② Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The supply and demand report of USDA in December 2021 predicts that the global soybean stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 is 27.1%, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.4 percentage points lower than that predicted in November; The global soybean meal inventory consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over 20 / 21, the same as the forecast value in November, and still at the lowest level since 11 / 12. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in December: the national soybean balance in 2021 / 22 is 170000 tons, the predicted balance is 1.15 million tons lower than that in November and 5.89 million tons lower than that in 20 / 21. We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022.
China's pet market has great potential, and the epidemic has dragged down the gradual end.
From 2010 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China's pet consumption market was as high as 30.9%; In 2020, the scale growth of China's pet consumption market slowed down to 2% and maintained single digit growth in 2021. We believe that the main reason for the slowdown in 2020-2021 is that the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic has significantly increased the downward pressure on the economy and delayed the entry of potential PET consumers into the market. However, from the medium and long-term perspective, the penetration rate of pets in China is 17%, while that in the United States, Australia, Britain and Japan is as high as 68%, 62%, 45% and 38% respectively; The annual consumption expenditure of pet dogs and cats in China is US $869 and US $679 respectively, which are lower than that of major pet raising countries. China's pet consumption market has great growth potential. From the perspective of the company, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) is affected by exchange and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) is affected by the shutdown of factories in Vietnam. We continue to recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk statement
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
