Chinese market: the seasonal factors remain unchanged, the penetration rate continues to increase, and the installed share of lithium iron phosphate continues to increase under cost pressure. On March 8, the all China Federation of passenger cars released the production and sales data of passenger cars in February. The production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars increased year-on-year, and continued to decline month on month due to seasonal factors and the Spring Festival effect, but the decline was better than that of the same period last year. According to the data, the wholesale sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars reached 317000, a year-on-year increase of 189.1% and a month on month decrease of 24.1%. In terms of power batteries, in February 2022, the loading volume of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries was 13.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 145.1% and a month on month decrease of 15.5%. The cost transmission of medium and low-end models increased the market share of lithium iron phosphate. From January to February, LFP accounted for 56%, with a growth rate far exceeding RMB 3; From the perspective of branch manufacturers, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) faces a slight decline in the share of second-line encirclement and suppression, and is optimistic that the second-line manufacturers are expected to break through the encirclement under the trend of accelerating the layout of new energy by joint venture vehicle enterprises.
European market: the effect faded at the end of the year, and the sales volume increased month on month in February. After the centralized delivery at the end of the year, in early 2022, under the influence of holiday effect and tight chip supply, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe decreased significantly month on month. However, by the end of February, the effect gradually faded, and the proportion of sales volume of new energy vehicles in mainstream European countries returned to positive growth. According to statistics, the sales volume of seven European countries reached 121400, with a year-on-year increase of 31.4% and a month on month increase of 6.8%. We expect the overall sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe to be 154000 in January 2022, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed the high growth expectation of 2.9 million. In mainstream countries, affected by the decline of subsidies, the sales volume in the UK continues to decrease month on month, while France and Germany maintain the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles, and the penetration and sales volume are expected to continue to grow high.
Investment advice. Pay attention to the growth opportunities of lithium battery industry chain brought by the continuous expansion of battery manufacturers’ production capacity under the high climate of new energy vehicle industry, and pay attention to the leading manufacturers with obvious cost and economies of scale advantages and integrated upstream and downstream layout in the field of electrolyte and diaphragm with low technical barriers, Pay attention to the leading cathode material manufacturers with deep layout of high nickel ternary technology in cathode materials and obvious advantages in overseas business expansion; Under the clearing of high-cost production capacity, attention is paid to the upstream lithium mining enterprises with obvious cost and resource advantages. Attention is paid to the relevant listed companies with low mining costs and high-quality lithium resources. The Chinese listed companies with relevant resources are expected to continue to expand their market share through the integrated layout of lithium mining to lithium salt production and sales. The listed companies with relevant integrated layout are expected to continue to expand their market share by virtue of price advantages; Pay attention to the second-line battery manufacturers with the layout of the whole industry chain and certain downstream customer cooperation advantages, which are expected to obtain performance and large orders higher than the market growth rate.
Risk tip: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the competition in the lithium battery industry is intensified, the raw material prices in the industrial chain fluctuate sharply, and the new energy vehicle policy is less than expected.
