Sector performance: last week, the banking sector fell 4.61%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.38pct (CSI 300 index fell 4.22%); According to the first-class industry classification standard of CITIC, all industries are listed as 17 / 29. In terms of individual stocks, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) (6.49%), Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) (4.69%), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (3.74%) led the increase Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) (- 11.63%), Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) (- 6.85%), Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) (- 5.20%) decreased significantly.
The social finance data in February showed that the credit demand was weak, and the steady growth policy needed to be further strengthened. Social finance increased by 1.19 trillion in February, a year-on-year decrease of 520 billion, lower than market expectations, mainly due to weak credit increment. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion; And the credit supply structure is weak. Medium and long-term loans of enterprises decreased by 594.8 billion year-on-year, reflecting that the current real financing demand is still weak, with steady growth. There is a lag from the policy to the implementation of infrastructure projects, and then to the generation of supporting credit demand, and the recovery of real demand is slow. It is speculated that commercial banks have basically put in early-stage reserve projects in January. Under the background of insufficient demand in February, they are more replenished through bill financing and short-term loans. The medium and long-term loans of residents decreased by 45.9 billion, the first negative growth in history, reflecting the weak demand for residents’ house purchase and mortgage loans in February; It still takes time from the relaxation of the real estate demand side policy to the recovery of residents’ house purchase demand. We expect that under the high economic growth target of 5.5% this year, the follow-up steady growth policy needs to be further strengthened to repair market expectations.
The banking sector has entered the disclosure period of the annual report: Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) the first annual report has a good performance, and the four major banks and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) 1-february are in good operation. 1) Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) : the performance has maintained steady and high growth, and the asset quality has been continuously improved. On March 9, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) disclosed the first annual report of listed banks in 2021. Driven by scale, non interest and provision, the company’s net profit achieved a high growth rate (YoY + 25.6%). Through the adjustment and optimization of asset liability structure, the company alleviated the pressure of narrowing interest margin, and the annual interest margin narrowed slightly by 9bp to 2.79%. At the end of the year, the non-performing loan balance and non-performing loan ratio decreased year-on-year, and the asset quality improved; The provision is sufficient and there is sufficient room for profit release. 2) Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) : from January to February, credit expanded rapidly, and the growth rate of revenue and net profit increased significantly. The revenue in the first two months was 1.668 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.94%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 481 million, with a year-on-year increase of 25.64%, and the growth rate increased significantly; It is mainly due to the accelerated expansion of scale and the stabilization of interest rate spread. At the end of February, the total assets increased by 8.07% compared with the beginning of the year, and the total loans increased by 5.80% compared with the beginning of the year; The net increase of loans in the first two months exceeded that in the first quarter of last year, and the scale achieved rapid expansion. At the same time, the total deposit increased by 11.56% compared with the beginning of the year, and the trend of attracting deposits was good. The non-performing loan ratio was 0.81%, the same as that at the beginning of the year, and the asset quality remained excellent; The provision coverage rate is 520.98%, which is in the forefront of listed banks. 3) Four major banks: release the operation from January to February, make steady progress in operation and achieve a good start. The announcement of big banks actively released positive signals, which helped boost market confidence.
Investment suggestion: from the perspective of policy, considering the current economic pressure in China, it is expected that the steady growth policy is expected to continue to make efforts in real estate and infrastructure investment, driving the expected repair of the market. From a fundamental point of view, the industry performance is uncertain, and the potential adverse pressure is small. The accelerated transformation of financial management business will contribute to new profit growth points. From the perspective of capital, the proportion of institutional heavy positions held in the sector is at a historically low level, and there is little room for further reduction. The current sector is only 0.59 times the static Pb valuation, which is at a historical low. We believe that the credit easing policy continues to work and the valuation repair market of the banking sector is worth looking forward to. It is recommended to select banks with customer base, sales channels and product service system first mover advantages in the field of wealth management ( China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), high-quality small and medium-sized banks with location advantages and market-oriented system mechanism ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , etc.).
Risk tip: the economy stalled and went down, and the real estate regulation policies and regulatory policies changed unexpectedly.
