Investment advice
View of semiconductor industry: due to the expansion of Xi’an epidemic, flow control affects Samsung’s NAND flash memory production in Xi’an. According to the research data of trendforce, Samsung accounts for 34% of the global flash memory market, of which 42% of the production capacity is in two 12 inch plants in Xi’an, with a total capacity of 260000 pieces per month, accounting for nearly 14% of the global production capacity, We estimate that the short-term closure will have an impact on the global NAND supply by 4-5 points in the first quarter, offsetting most of the original oversupply of nearly 6% in the first quarter. Therefore, we believe that the decline in the price of NAND flash memory in the first quarter will be slowed down, and the downward trend will be significantly better than the previous expectations of the market, which is better than the Yangtze River storage, Hynix and mguang of relevant industrial chains, Group connection of non Samsung control chip manufacturers and packaging and testing, Dachang Licheng, Peyton, Wuxi Taiji Industry Limited Corporation(600667) . The global chip gap has gradually narrowed since the fourth quarter. We reiterate that the strong applications in 2022 are semiconductors for vehicles, servers, game industry (yuancosmos) and commercial laptop. We estimate that the chip demand driven by these strong applications should still increase by more than 15% in 2022. In addition, the semiconductor inflation proposed in our 2021 medium-term strategy report continues, This will drive a year-on-year growth of nearly 10 points in the global logic semiconductor industry, with a global semiconductor growth of more than 5% (including the memory market) (wsts11 / 30 / 2021 announced an expected revenue of 8.8 points in 2022). The observation index for the next two weeks is the first quarter revenue guidance provided by TSMC to the market, which will set the profile of the benchmarking company.
View of electronics industry: CES 2022 will be held in Las Vegas from January 5 to 8, with more than 1700 exhibitors, including more than 185 auto exhibitors, a year-on-year increase of about 20%, reaching a record high. Ces2022 suggests focusing on the innovative applications of automatic driving, networked vehicles, UAVs, vr virtual reality, ar Augmented reality, artificial intelligence, smart home, wearable products and medical treatment. It is optimistic that 800V system will benefit from industrial chain, AR / VR, folding mobile phone innovation, on-board optics and connectors, consumer electronics quality and undervalued leader, automobile PCB and high-end PCB. Affected by the current semiconductor supply shortage, the prices and sales of passive component manufacturers are under pressure in the short term. We expect the upward growth inflection point of the passive component market will appear with the relief of semiconductor shortage. Looking forward to 2022, we study and judge that driven by the emerging demand for new energy (electric vehicles, wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage), communication, IOT, data center and other new energy sources, and with the gradual easing of chip shortage and price rise, passive components are expected to achieve steady growth. It is predicted that the global passive components will increase by 5-7% in 2022. In addition, the localization rate of passive components is not high. Under the background of trade friction and overseas manufacturers turning to the field of vehicle and new energy, Chinese manufacturers are facing better domestic substitution opportunities and are optimistic about industry leading companies.
View of the communication industry: in 2022, the investment opportunities in the communication industry will be further transferred to the new generation of ICT industry. The supply chain of equipment manufacturers is more of a structural market. Growth investment opportunities will come from the integration of communication and vertical industries, including new industries such as aiot, cloud computing, digital energy sources and smart cars. 5g investment turns to demand driven. It is suggested to focus on investment opportunities in subdivided fields such as operators, main equipment manufacturers, optical communication and VR. Benefiting from the construction of meta universe and the improvement of supply chain, the capital expenditure of global cloud computing giants will maintain a 17% growth in 22 years, and the landscape of cloud computing industry chain will be improved. It is suggested to pay attention to new applications and structural investment opportunities. Under the background of digitization and dual carbon, data center energy ushers in new opportunities, and high computing efficiency and low pue have become the core trend of the industry. The global data center infrastructure construction market is expected to reach US $310.5 billion by 2025. Among them, the CAGR of server, storage, refrigeration system and distribution system in the past ten years are 6%, 6%, 20% and 12% respectively. It is recommended to focus on leading companies with technical barriers and scale effects in relevant fields. Investment in the field of Internet of things is still focused on the connection layer, focusing on China’s leading companies enjoying industry certainty and successful business model transformation companies.
Recommended combinations: Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Novoray Corporation(688300) , Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) , Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) .
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles / smart phones is lower than expected, and the intelligent configuration is not as expected
