Market situation: this week (3.5-3.11), the A-share real estate index (Shenwan real estate) increased by - 5.48% (last week - 1.23%), and the A-share market (wandequan a) increased by - 3.96% (last week - 1.27%); The H-share real estate index (kroney real estate leading index) rose - 9.04% (last week - 2.39%), and the H-share market (Hang Seng Index) rose - 6.17% (last week - 3.79%). This week, the performance of A-share and H-share real estate sectors were weaker than the market.
Industry fundamentals:
New home sales accelerated the decline, and second-hand housing transactions showed signs of recovery. From the data, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 45 cities (3.1 ~ 3.10) was - 40.4% year-on-year and - 23.8% year-on-year last month; The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities (3.1 ~ 3.10) was - 23.4% year-on-year and - 32.7% year-on-year last month.
The decontamination cycle increased significantly. According to the data, the de commercialization cycle of commercial housing in 15 cities (as of March 10) was 606 days, compared with 552 days in the same period last month.
The land market is increasingly depressed. According to the data, the cumulative land construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of March 13) was - 35.6% year-on-year and - 31.8% year-on-year last week; The premium rate of land transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities (3.7 ~ 3.13) this week was 0.0% and 1.0% last week; The total land transaction price of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of March 13) was - 67.8% year-on-year, and - 65.3% year-on-year last week.
Domestic bond issuance weakened and financing continued to be depressed. According to the data, the issuance scale of domestic real estate bonds (3.1 ~ 3.13) was - 49.9% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 18.3% year-on-year; The issuance scale of overseas real estate bonds (3.1 ~ 3.13) was - 69.4% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 90.1% year-on-year; The scale of trust financing (3.1 ~ 3.13) accumulated - 82.0% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 51.2% year-on-year.
Investment strategy: according to the data released by the central bank, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan in February, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan, of which the medium and long-term loans of residents decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, the first net decrease since the release of social finance data in 2007. High frequency data also showed that the new house transactions in early March were further deteriorating, and residents' willingness to buy houses was extremely depressed. Under the impact of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, both sides of supply and demand are facing great impact. The policy goal of "stabilizing land price, house price and expectation" will face great challenges. It is urgent to further strengthen the maintenance of market stability.
In March 2nd, China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Guo Shuqing said that the real estate bubble financial momentum has been fundamentally reversed. The government work report released on March 5 also pointed out that we should support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies. We believe that the central government's attitude towards real estate regulation has changed significantly. With the current clear policy tone and encouragement direction, the support of demand side policies is expected to be more accurate and intensive, and the support of financial institutions to both ends of supply and demand is expected to be further strengthened. The housing demand of "300 million new citizens" is expected to become the next stage of political reform
The focus of policy support is also expected to become an important support for the reversal of sales decline in low-energy cities. We believe that the advantages of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support from the financing side, after meeting the steady central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head, will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises, and the market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Risk tip: the risk that the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected, the risk that profitability continues to decline, and the risk that sales are less than expected.
