Macro: the CPI and PPI of the United States reached a new high in February, and the growth rate of social finance in China was lower than expected. Abroad: the CPI of the United States increased by 7.9% year-on-year in February, a new high in 40 years, and the PPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since October 2018. China: in February, RMB loans increased by 1230 billion yuan, and the scale of social finance increased by 10.2% year-on-year.
Steel: the demand for steel has increased significantly, and the profitability has improved significantly. This week, the output of rebar increased significantly by 2.21% month on month, and the consumption increased sharply by 15.53% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel data, the capacity utilization rate of rebar in the process of this week was 71.9%, with a slight increase of 0.97pct month on month. The national development and Reform Commission will maintain the normal order of the market and ensure the stable operation of iron ore and coal prices, which may benefit steel enterprises on the cost side.
New energy metals: the average price of lithium carbonate exceeded the threshold of 500000 yuan / ton, and lunni fluctuated violently in the event of “historical air pressure”. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 480500 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 5.95% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 502000 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.41% month on month. This week, the month on month ratio of MB standard cobalt increased significantly, and the month on month ratio of Co3O4 increased significantly. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $48226 / ton, up 61.83% month on month.
Industrial metals: the price has dropped, the demand for replenishment in the downstream has increased, and the external strength and internal weakness of industrial metals have intensified. This week, TC / RC of copper smelters increased significantly by 2.27% month on month. The global refined copper output and primary refined copper output decreased slightly in November month on month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level of 90% in January, with a slight increase of 1.24pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly month on month and LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper decreased significantly by 3.08% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased slightly by 0.99% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia decreased month on month this week.
Kim: the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, and risk aversion pushes up the price of gold. This week, Comex gold price increased significantly by 2.78% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold increased significantly by 5.95% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 2%, up slightly by 0.26pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: for ordinary steel, it is suggested to pay attention to listed companies with low carbon emission intensity and energy consumption per ton of steel on the one hand, and Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) ( Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , buy), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) ( Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , not rated), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ( Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , buy), and listed companies with low Pb on the other hand, such as Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) ( Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , not rated), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) ( Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , not rated) Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) ( Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , not rated), Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) ( Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , not rated); In terms of special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) ( Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , buy).
New energy metals: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , buy), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy); And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , buy), and high-end aluminum enterprises Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , not rated).
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ( Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) , not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
