Plate review
Last week’s performance: from March 7 to March 11, shenwanyi industry fell collectively, among which social services and household appliances fell the most, with a decline of 7.91% and 7.54% respectively; Food and beverage, electric power equipment and comprehensive decreased slightly, with decreases of 2.06%, 0.56% and 0.08% respectively.
The top ten stocks of the new energy sector that saw the new energy sector last week last week last week. The top ten stocks of the new energy sector rising in the new energy sector last week are: Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) \ (6.62%), Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (6.09%), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (5.55%). The top ten stocks that have fallen in the top ten of the decline are: MIRC (- 22.42 percent (- 22.42 percent (- 22.42 percent percent), ideal car (- 18.58 percent (- 18.58 percent (- 15.02 percent (- 15.02 percent (- 15.02 percent (- 15.02 percent (- 15.02 percent) percent of the Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) 10.57%).
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of new energy vehicles
In mid February 2022, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market were 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2 times and 1.8 times respectively; In terms of market share, from January to February this year, the market share of new energy vehicles was 17.9%. Specifically, in the first two months of this year, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 652000 and 604000 respectively, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 168000 and 160000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8 times and 2.5 times respectively. Chinese automobile enterprises actively deployed new energy vehicles, and the share of Chinese brands continued to rise. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of Chinese brand passenger vehicles reached 1.637 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% and the market share was 44.6%; German and Japanese market share continued to decline.
Under the current trend of automobile globalization and electrification, the global sales of new energy vehicles are still expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. There are still structural opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector in 2022, and the short-term adjustment may provide a buying opportunity. According to the prediction of the China Travel Association, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 10 million vehicles in 2022, and China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery industry chain, as a participant occupying the main share in the world, will fully benefit. Lithium battery industry chain: lithium battery industry chain: lithium battery industry chain: lithium battery industry chain: with the price of raw materials such as lithium ore in the upstream and the price of raw materials such as lithium ore rising continuously, superimposon the demand for downstream new energy vehicles turning for the better. In 2022, the price of power batteries is likely to rise in 2022, as the price of battery batteries will likely rise in 2022, and battery companies are expected to usherin a profitable fix in the hope of battery businesses, and related targets: 3 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 50\ \35. It is suggested that the lithium battery material industry chain should pay attention to the enterprises with strong bargaining power, integrated layout and overseas expansion of new customers: the cathode material should pay attention to the lithium iron phosphate and high nickel ternary leaders, and the relevant targets include: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ; Objects related to negative electrode materials: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; Electrolyte related targets: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) ; Related objects of diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) . In the field of lithium battery recycling, in the context of the upcoming retirement tide of the power battery recycling industry, it is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises with the advantages of first mover and integration in the fields of power battery recycling and manufacturing, standby power and charge and discharge, and the relevant targets include: Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) . The lithium resources sector suggests paying attention to leading companies with high self-sufficiency rate, including: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) .
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of photovoltaic and wind power
On March 11, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the “14th five year plan” for building energy conservation and green building development. The plan points out that by 2025, the energy-saving transformation area of existing buildings will be more than 350 million square meters, the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings will be more than 50 million square meters, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year will reach 30%, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic in new buildings in China will be more than 50 million KW, and the application area of geothermal energy will be more than 100 million square meters, The replacement rate of renewable energy in urban buildings reached 8%, and the proportion of power consumption in building energy consumption exceeded 55%. Driven by the policy, during the “14th five year plan” period, distributed photovoltaic is expected to usher in high growth with the advantages of small floor area, flexibility and intelligence.
In the short term, the price of photovoltaic in the middle and upper reaches continued to rise slightly last week, which was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in the release of production expansion by large Chinese manufacturers, superimposed by the strong demand in the lower reaches. From the supply side: according to the silicon industry branch, China’s polysilicon output in February was about 52300 tons, with a chain ratio of + 0.6%, and the growth rate was lower than expected. According to the production plan of silicon material enterprises from March to April, the production expansion and release increment of Chinese silicon material enterprises may continue to be lower than expected, and the maintenance of overseas enterprises is still continuing, which will have a certain impact on the supply side. From the demand side, Q1 photovoltaic demand is not weak in the off-season in 2022. Up to now, the scale of component bid opening / bidding of central state-owned enterprises in 2022 exceeded 45gw, and the operating rate of component manufacturers remained high. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, components and terminals may have a heavy wait-and-see mood, and the demand growth may slow down. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern: it is estimated that the overall new supply of Q1 silicon material in 2022 is still insufficient compared with the new demand in the downstream. The mismatch between supply and demand of silicon material in the short term may be maintained, the price of silicon material may maintain a slight upward trend, the battery link may be in the stage of price game, and the downstream component manufacturers and terminals are in a heavy wait-and-see mood. With the subsequent capacity release of silicon material manufacturers, the prices in the middle and upper reaches are expected to decline, driving the downstream installation demand. In addition, with the advantages of small floor area, flexibility and intelligence, distributed PV actively promotes the construction of distributed PV by superimposing the policies of the whole county. Distributed projects still account for a high proportion of new installed capacity in 2022.
In the medium and long term, under the background of “double carbon” and the clear goal that the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025, the cost of superimposed photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, the economy continues to improve, the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity is high, and the growth certainty is strong.
It is expected that the high level of supply and demand ; 2) Component integrated faucet Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; 3) Inverter taps benefiting from photovoltaic + energy storage dual wheel drive Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; 4) Photovoltaic glass duopoly Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and Xinyi solar energy benefiting from the improvement of the permeability of double glass modules; 5) Subject to the short-term supply bottleneck of raw materials and limited market demand, the leading enterprises in EVA film link Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; 6) Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , benefiting from the increased proportion of distributed photovoltaic.
Wind power: in the short term, in 2022, the wind power industry will expand intensively, the pace of expansion is in a hurry, the trend of large-scale wind turbines is significant, the overall cost of the industry is expected to continue to decline, and the wind power landscape is expected to improve. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. The wind power industry has broad prospects and long-term growth space. At the same time, offshore wind power is the key to solve the contradiction between insufficient power generation and power load in the eastern coastal areas. Subject matter with cost advantage and technical core competitiveness: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , etc.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The double carbon policy is less than expected; The epidemic development exceeded expectations.
