Key investment points:
Big home: the main line of valuation repair continues, and the leader is expected to increase market share against the trend. In the whole year of 21, the completed area of residential houses was 730.16 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. Among them, the completed area of residential houses in December was 234.34 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. In 21 years, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing in China were 1.794 billion square meters and 18.19 trillion yuan respectively, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9% and 4.8%, and the growth rate decreased by 3.9 and 0.7 percentage points respectively compared with 20 years. The 2022 government work report proposes to adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the benign cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies. Under the guidance of the policy of “implementing policies according to the city”, many places have issued the policy of “stabilizing the property market”, reducing the proportion of the first set of down payment, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, weakening the demand side restrictions, and regional regulation is expected to improve the overall Fundamentals of real estate from bottom to top. In February, the social finance was RMB 119 billion, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year, and the real estate margin gradually improved. With the recovery of the prosperity of the real estate sector, In the post real estate cycle, the liquidity of the household sector is expected to continue to improve, leading enterprises will take the lead in benefiting, and it is expected to continue to expand market share by virtue of brand and channel advantages.
It is suggested to pay attention to the customization leader Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , which has obvious advantages in multi-channel strategy and multi categories. It is suggested to pay attention to Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , which promotes the whole packaging strategy and creates the second growth curve. It is recommended to introduce Internet strategic investors and Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) , which has a forward-looking layout of the whole packaging business, with prominent bulk advantages For Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (according to the 21-year performance express, the company achieved a revenue of 5.153 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 34.17%, including an operating profit of 552 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.50%), Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) (2021q4 exceeded expectations), it is recommended to introduce war investment enabling Ekornes growth, “three new” marketing reform to promote retail growth The risk of Evergrande’s receivables is gradually released, and the financial cost is continuously optimized Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) etc. The software sector recommends Minhua holdings, a software leader with continuous rise in domestic and foreign sales and expansion in the number of stores. It is suggested to focus on the layout of the whole house customization, the acceleration of channel sinking, the gradual release of production capacity, the integration of categories and the improvement of store efficiency Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ; Recommend Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , which is jointly promoted by Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) and continuously increased the proportion of independent brands, and set up a high equity incentive plan with a compound growth rate of 40% of net profit in 22-24 years; Recommend vertical integration within the supply chain and deeply bind Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) . It is suggested to focus on the Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) , which is driven by the rapid growth of product revenue and the continuous development of overseas e-commerce Amazon + independent station. The wooden door department suggests paying attention to Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) , which has a continuous and large-scale project and orderly production capacity, the hardware ceramic tile department is optimistic about Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , which is optimistic about the expansion of categories, farming channels and the continuous realization of dividends, and the Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) with high-end product structure, national production capacity layout and multi-channel development. The electrician lighting sector suggests paying attention to the channel brand leading, the cost impact is not likely, and the category channel has sufficient room for expansion Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the Opple Lighting Co.Ltd(603515) , where online business licenses maintain steady growth, multi-channel layout and gradually increase the market share.
FMCG: with the rise of national tide and personal protection, e-commerce promotion demand is large. In December, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies reached 41.7 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the repeated epidemic in many places, and the growth rate on the demand side slowed down. It is suggested to pay attention to the Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , which has strong traditional barriers, large volume of kelip and steady expansion of Jiumu stores. We believe that the marginal impact of double reduction is decreasing, and the strong alpha of the company is prominent. According to the performance express of 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 17.607 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 34.02%, including an operating profit of 1.783 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.55%; Wood pulp industry fell, gross profit gradually restored C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) ; Recommend the all cotton life leader Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) , which is driven by two wheels of consumer medicine and has obvious advantages in all channels; Recommend the implementation of the incentive plan, deeply bind the management, highlight the long-term development confidence in the performance evaluation objectives, and expand the channels steadily Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) .
New type of tobacco: the new type of tobacco regulatory policy has been implemented, and attention has been paid to the value of the layout of the new type of tobacco industry chain The Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) new tobacco industry chain layout is further increased, extending from the horizontal road to the low temperature tobacco field, extending vertically to the upstream flavor and fragrance, and the synergy effect of the whole industry is enhanced. According to the annual performance express of Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 5.085 billion yuan, an increase of 21.32% over the same period of last year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 100600 yuan, an increase of 22.12% over the same period last year. The company’s new-type tobacco continued to expand, making breakthroughs in industrial chain extension, customer expansion and capacity construction, and its revenue increased by 381.16% year-on-year. In terms of cigarette labels, driven by the winning business of key customers in 22 years, the revenue of cigarette labels is expected to rise; In terms of color boxes, under the upgrading trend of medium and high-end tobacco and alcohol packaging and 3C product packaging, the company continued to promote the high-end business strategy of products, and the revenue increased by 23.52% year-on-year. Philip Morris International (PMI) achieved a revenue of US $31.41 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, including an operating profit of US $12.98 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. The global cigarette market grew steadily. The company built the second growth curve with HNB products. Smore is expected to realize profit and comprehensive income of RMB 5.024-5.553 billion in the 21st year, with a year-on-year increase of 109.3% – 131.4%; The adjusted net profit was 5.180-5.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.0% – 46.6%. China’s policy: on March 1, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued the measures for the administration of e-cigarettes. Compared with the version issued on December 2, 2001, the new standard is revised in the following aspects: 1) delete “enterprises producing e-cigarettes not sold in China and only used for export shall register their products in accordance with the provisions of these measures and obtain the license of tobacco monopoly production enterprises”, In terms of export, the registration and licensing system is slightly loose, which is good for Chinese made brands to go to sea. 2) The number of permitted substances for atomizing additives has been reduced from 122 to 101. Flavoring agents such as plum extract have been deleted, and “the characteristic flavor of the product shall not show other flavors except tobacco” has been added. The taste of tobacco is limited, and the expression of tobacco taste is expected to become the final point. 3) The trading objects of the trading management platform are changed from “e-cigarette wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and individuals” to “e-cigarette retail business entities”. The sales channels are expected to be unified into tobacco stores, and the retail outlets will increase or expand the sales channels. Overseas policy: on October 13, 2001, two cigarette oils and one cigarette set of British American Tobacco vusesolo series became the first electronic cigarette product to pass the PMTA in the United States, and the market expectation is optimistic.
We believe that the new type of tobacco is still a long-term high-quality track. The penetration rate of e-cigarettes in the United States has been more than 50%, while that in China is only 1% ~ 2%. There is huge room for the scale of e-cigarette market in the future. E-cigarette brands continue to expand globally. In the long run, the trend of e-cigarette is unstoppable. It is recommended that smore international, which has advanced ceramic atomization technology, increased global share, orderly production capacity, special supply advantages for large customers and led in the comprehensive competitiveness of products, should pay attention to the layout of new tobacco, undervalued Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) and so on.
Papermaking: the pulp price fluctuated upward, and the leading profit in the traditional peak season improved. As of March 11, the prices of white cardboard, double copper paper, double offset paper, box board paper and corrugated paper were 6380, 5680, 6175, 4833 and 376563 yuan / ton, with a change of 1.5%, 1.1%, 1.0%, – 0.9% and – 1.7% on a weekly basis. Wood pulp: in terms of cultural paper, the price increases of some manufacturers have been implemented in February, and the downstream dealers follow up obviously. In the short term, benefiting from the peak bidding season of teaching and auxiliary materials, the printing plant resumes operation, the demand is supported, and the export demand of superimposed white cardboard is stable, and the paper price will be maintained. White cardboard: the price of white cardboard has risen recently. On the one hand, due to the rise of pulp price, on the other hand, due to the epidemic, the production capacity of overseas paper mills has decreased, the export demand is stable, and the overall production and sales of white cardboard have remained stable. Waste paper system: the start-up of paper mills is gradually restored, the willingness to purchase waste paper is improved, and some paper mills intend to increase inventory reserves. Due to the limited new capacity of waste paper, the cost support is relatively strong. The first quarter entered the traditional peak season of the paper industry. After the phased adjustment and destocking of the downstream base paper market, there was room for improvement in the operating rate of some downstream base paper in the first quarter, and the demand for pulp collection may return to temperature slowly, supporting the mentality of the pulp Market. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading paper enterprise Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ; Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) and Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) , which have the double barriers of production end and client, will continue to put in production capacity in the future and layout the high-quality subdivision track of food packaging paper.
Packaging: the pulp market continues to be strong, and the packaging paper rises locally. It is suggested that the utilization rate of high-end beer packaging will be significantly improved, and the utilization rate of high-end beer packaging will be significantly improved; In the paper packaging sector, with the rise of pulp price in early 22, the price of packaging paper raw materials rose, and the price increase strategy was effectively implemented. It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) , which benefited from the 5g machine change trend and the continuous growth of consumer electronics. Composite plastic temsector block, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality structure of downstream customers and Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) , which is deeply bound with Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) and other cheese growth tracks Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co.Ltd(601968) issued the incentive plan. The exercise price of stock options granted is 9.53 yuan / share, and the incentive objects granted for the first time are no more than 109. The performance evaluation target is 20222024, of which the compound growth rate of operating income in 2024 is no less than 17.43% compared with that in 2020, and the compound growth rate of total deducted non profits in 2024 is no less than 16.3% compared with that in 2020.
Risk tip: real estate regulation tightened; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The epidemic situation has been repeated outside China.
