In the middle of February 2022, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 367000, with a year-on-year increase of + 198% and a month on month increase of – 19%; The sales volume was 333000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 204% and a month on month increase of – 23%. Among them, the output of passenger cars was 353000, a month on month increase of – 19.2%; The sales volume (including export) was 321000 units, a month on month increase of – 23%; The permeability was 22%, with a chain ratio of + 2.3pct, a record high;
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, February is the slowest season of the year, and the sales volume has decreased by 35-45% over the years. However, benefiting from Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) two leading automobile enterprises, the sales volume of February this year is basically the same month on month, superimposed with the lower decline of Geely and North South Volkswagen. The sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to be sold in supermarkets. Specifically:
1) in terms of levels, due to the continuous rise in the price of upstream lithium carbonate, the profitability of small cars has been damaged, and the production of small car models of various car enterprises has been reduced or stopped, resulting in the month on month decline of A00 + A0 car sales, including Wuling Hongguang Mini, Great Wall black cat / white cat, Chery EQ, Benben and other models, which fell 40-60% month on month, and the proportion continued to decline 7pct to 32% month on month; Class a vehicles were driven by the sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) Qin / song, which was flat or even increased month on month, accounting for + 3PCT to 31% month on month; Class B vehicles were driven by Tesla m3 / my’s basically flat mom and Byd Company Limited(002594) Tang’s growth mom, accounting for + 4pct to 35% mom.
2) in terms of enterprises, 87000 vehicles were sold in Byd Company Limited(002594) 2 month on month, with a chain ratio of – 6%, the market share of 28% and the market share of + 5% month on month. While continuing the sales champion of auto enterprises and dynasty.com as the main sales force, the sales structure of Byd Company Limited(002594) models tends to be diversified; Tesla sold 57000 vehicles in February, a month on month increase of – 6%, of which 33000 were exported and 24000 were sold domestically Byd Company Limited(002594) and Tesla sold well in the off-season during the one-week Spring Festival holiday in February, and the sales volume basically maintained the level in January, exceeding market expectations. Shangtong Wuling ranks third, with a monthly sales of 26000 vehicles, but the output is as high as 39200 vehicles, mainly due to the inability to deliver during the Spring Festival holiday; In February, the sales volume of Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng were 60000, 5000 and 6000 respectively, with a month on month decrease of 30-50%, and the total market share was -2pct to 7%.
3) in terms of models, the top three in February sales are Tesla modely, Model3 and Hongguang Mini. The sales of the above models have exceeded 20000 this month, of which 32000 are sold in modely, with a chain comparison of – 2%, 24000 are sold in Model3, with a chain comparison of – 9%. Tesla’s current price rise has little impact, with good orders and full production scheduling; Hongguang Mini sold 22000 vehicles a month, a month on month increase of – 40% Byd Company Limited(002594) song DM, Qin plusdmi and Tang DM ranked 4-6 respectively, with monthly sales exceeding 10000, of which song DM and Tang DM achieved positive month on month growth of 13-16% Byd Company Limited(002594) Han EV, dolphin and Qin plusev rank 7th / 8th / 10th, with monthly sales of 8-9000 vehicles.
Investment advice
On the supply side, the month on month production schedule in March was restored as scheduled, and the upstream price rise did not suppress the battery production schedule; On the demand side, the demand of the industry continues to be strong, including the price rise of Byd Company Limited(002594) , gac-ea, Tesla and other auto enterprises, which has basically not affected the order situation. It is expected that China’s new energy vehicles will be sold in batches of 42 Shenzhen Textile (Holdings) Co.Ltd(000045) 0000 in March, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 6 million. To recommend a set of leading enterprises in each link of the chain of links, leading enterprises in various links have been recommended to highlight the leading enterprises in various links: the Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) etc.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles did not meet expectations, raw material prices remained high, and the global epidemic intensified
